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Hong Kong in recession after protests deal 'comprehensive blow'


Hong Kong in recession after protests deal 'comprehensive blow'
Financial secretary calls fall in tourism an ‘emergency’ and says it will be extremely difficult for city to achieve any annual growth

Hong Kong’s financial secretary has said the region is in recession after more than five months of anti-government protests, and said it was unlikely to achieve annual economic growth this year.

“The blow to our economy is comprehensive,” Paul Chan said in a blog post on Sunday, adding that figures out on Thursday would show two successive quarters of contraction – the technical definition of a recession.

“The government will be announcing its advance estimates for the third quarter on Thursday. After seeing negative growth in the second quarter, the situation continued in the third quarter, meaning our economy has entered technical recession,” he wrote.

“It seems it will be extremely difficult for us to reach full-year economic growth of 0 to 1%. I would not rule out the possibility that the full-year economic growth will be negative.”

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(23 October 2019) Robert Koepp On The Civil Unrest In Hong Kong. USC US-China Institute. [Video]

Some insights into what is happening in Hong Kong on an economic level.

Some takeaways:

* Hong Kong has historically gone through worse, notably the 1967 summer protests in which dozens of people were killed, and the British deployed the military.
* A slump in the retail economy due to the decrease of tourism, particularly mainland tourists.
* The judiciary retains a notable degree of neutrality and independence, preserving a measure of rule of law.
* The trade war with the US has had an impact, but not actually as significant.
* Economic fundamentals (property values, value of the HK$)  remain positive for now.


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