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VIETNAM’S UPHILL BATTLE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA: A NEED FOR MORE INTERNATIONAL ACTORS
BY NGUYEN THANH TRUNG | AUGUST 23, 2019
AMTI UPDATE
https://amti.csis.org/vietnams-uphill-battle-in-the-south-china-sea-a-need-for-more-international-actors/The standoff between China and Vietnam near Vanguard Bank has passed the two-month mark without showing any sign of a resolution. Since mid-June 2019, a Chinese survey ship and its coast guard escorts have been maneuvering in a threatening manner in the southern part of Vietnam’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), a short distance from Block 06-01 where Vietnamese vessels are servicing the Hakuryu-5 drilling rig under the eye of other China Coast Guard (CCG) vessels. The tensions could flare up into a violent confrontation at any time, given that CCG ships are still behaving very aggressively toward much smaller Vietnamese vessels.
The situation reflects a widening asymmetry of power between China and Vietnam. AMTI director Gregory Poling has said, “China’s actions off both the Malaysian and Vietnamese coasts since May show that Beijing is increasingly willing to employ coercion and the threat of force to block oil and gas operations by its neighbors, even while pursuing its own energy exploration in disputed waters.” Beijing’s coercive diplomacy of using coast guard muscle to harass Hanoi’s efforts to implement energy exploration in Block 06-01 may set bilateral ties between the two communist countries back to their record low in 2014.
Vietnamese leaders had learned a hard lesson in May 2014, when China deployed the mobile deep-water oil drilling platform Haiyang Shiyou 981 (HYSY 981) in Vietnamese-claimed waters near the Paracels. China’s move caught Vietnamese leaders by surprise. The tension resulted not only in vessel rammings between Vietnamese forces attempting to oust the HYSY 981 and the rig’s escorts, but also entailed violent street protests and unrest in Vietnam. The Chinese oil rig was pulled out after more than two months, but the repercussions continue today.
Much has changed since May 2014 for both Hanoi and Beijing. Vietnam has accelerated its naval modernization. Vietnam received its first Kilo-class Russian-made submarine in 2014 and the last one in January 2017, giving Hanoi the largest submarine stockpile in Southeast Asia. But tensions have so far not played out with conventional forces. China has wisely used coast guard vessels to avoid escalation. In addition, Beijing has tried to keep China-Vietnam tensions in the South China Sea largely insulated from direct interference by external actors.
< Edited >
The situation will get worse not only for Vietnam but for the whole international community if China is allowed to ignore the law without paying a price. Hanoi cannot confront Beijing alone.
