Weak nations playing great powers off each other

[adroth]

Administrator's note: Here are related discussions

Implementing an independent foreign policy

Rebooting US-PH communications

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Rodrigo Duterte Plays U.S. and China Off Each Other, in Echo of Cold War
The Interpreter

By MAX FISHER NOV. 3, 2016

From: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/04/world/asia/philippines-duterte-us-china-cold-war.html?_r=0

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President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines traveled to Beijing recently, promising to announce his country’s “separation” from the United States and alarming the White House and his own defense secretary.

But something different happened. Instead, Mr. Duterte kept the alliance with the United States intact, appeared to reach an understanding with China to allow Filipino fishermen to return to disputed waters, and, by threatening a geopolitical realignment, distracted from American objections to his country’s growing human rights abuses.

Rather than switch allegiances between the two nations, Mr. Duterte managed to play them off each other, in that way improving his position with both and cementing his image at home as a strong nationalist unbeholden to foreign powers. And he did it while keeping his nation’s security guaranteed by a 65-year-old treaty with the United States.

Whether he knows it or not, Mr. Duterte is following a strategy that leaders used throughout the Cold War: balancing between the powers by threatening to change loyalties. That strategy’s track record illuminates why Mr. Duterte’s seemingly reckless actions have borne him such fruit, and may offer a hint of his goals.

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Mr. Duterte’s actions call to mind, for example, Josip Broz Tito, the Communist leader of Yugoslavia who broke with Moscow in the Cold War’s first years by declaring himself “nonaligned.” The United States rewarded him with economic aid; the Soviet Union, desperate to keep Tito from joining NATO, rewarded him with autonomy and shows of respect.

In the end, Tito won concessions from both sides, enhanced his image at home — and remained in the Communist fold. Rather than becoming a victim of the Cold War, he exploited it to his advantage.

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Other Cold War leaders pitted the superpowers against each other as a means to win independence from them and extract concessions along the way. Gamal Abdel Nasser of Egypt took handouts from both sides, for instance, and relied on them to eject a 1956 invasion by British, French and Israeli troops.

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Aleksandr G. Lukashenko, the president of Belarus, whose authoritarian government has long been tied to Moscow, occasionally hints at a Myanmar-style opening to the West. In response, the European Union will grant him some concessions, Russia will offer him energy subsidies, and, in the end, nothing will change.

Great powers, it turns out, have little choice but to endure these small humiliations. Moscow probably sees Mr. Lukashenko’s game, but it cannot tolerate even the possibility of losing him to the European Union.

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Responses on the companion thread on the forum's FB extension

https://www.facebook.com/groups/rpdefense/permalink/1136890086396837/

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This exchange was from the "What the PH brings to the table" thread.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/rpdefense/permalink/1137786869640492/?comment_id=1138135766272269&comment_tracking=%7B%22tn%22%3A%22R9%22%7D

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Even Israel is improving relations with China and Russia. Do we hear a similar outcry from US as what we see with the Philippines?

Netanyahu defends tightening relations with China and Russia

DECEMBER 11, 2016, 6:30 PM| Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu claims new alliances with U.S. adversaries are based on trade and are equivalent to U.S. relations with China and Russia

http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/netanyahu-defends-tightening-relations-with-china-and-russia/

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Despite Russia's statements to the contrary . . . the game is being played

Duterte hopes Russia will become Philippines' ally and protector

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-russia-duterte-idUSKBN14Q0Z0

President Rodrigo Duterte said on Friday that he hoped Moscow, a rival of the Philippine's traditional ally the United States, would become his country's ally and protector as he toured one of the two Russian warships on a four-day visit to Manila.

Duterte's remarks came a day after Russia's ambassador said his country was ready to supply the Philippines with sophisticated weapons and aims to become its close friend.

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Contrast this with Russia's own statement

Russia not seeking military alliance with PHL — envoy
Published November 29, 2016 12:54pm
By ERWIN COLCOL, GMA News

Russian Ambassador to the Philippines Igor Khovaev on Tuesday assured that his country is ready to be a reliable friend and partner of the Philippines but noted that it is not seeking to establish a military alliance with any country within the Asia-Pacific region.

"We are open for cooperation with all responsible members of the international community, including the Philippines," Khovaev said in a forum in Quezon City on Tuesday.

"[But] we are not talking about alliance.... We are talking about partnership and friendship. Russia has no military alliance in the Asia-Pacific region. We are not going to create any military alliance," he added.

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However, he said Russia does not want to meddle with the issue on the disputed territories in the South China Sea.

"Russia does not take sides in [South] China Sea [issue]. It must be solved in compliance with international law," Khovaev said.

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- See more at: http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/590567/news/nation/russia-not-seeking-military-alliance-with-phl-envoy#sthash.9lrE0VTl.dpuf

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Tillerson avoids condemning Philippines dictator Rodrigo Duterte's war on drugs as a human rights violation
3:33 p.m. ET
 
Secretary of state nominee Rex Tillerson hesitated to call the Philippines a human rights violator when asked for his opinion Wednesday at his Senate confirmation hearing. When pressed by Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), the former ExxonMobil executive insisted he would need more information before he could assess whether the brutal crackdown on drugs led by Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte that has killed thousands could classify as a human rights abuse.

Rubio responded by pointing out that Tillerson actually already has access to the information, given that it was published in an article in the Los Angeles Times and that Duterte was quoted for the piece. Tillerson stuck to his defense, claiming he could not "rely solely on media reports." However, he did note that he knows the Philippines is a U.S. ally, and "we need to make sure they stay an ally."

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http://theweek.com/speedreads/672682/tillerson-avoids-condemning-philippines-dictator-rodrigo-dutertes-war-drugs-human-rights-violation

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After this

Tokyo matches Beijing’s $9-B grant
By Christina Mendez
Philippine Star13 January, 2017

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/tokyo-matches-beijing-9-b-000000179.html

As Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe wrapped up his two-day visit in the country yesterday, President Duterte’s economic managers were upbeat about the administration’s unprecedented feat in three months after Tokyo matched Beijing’s $9-billion grant to the Philippines.

Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez III and Trade Secretary Ramon Lopez are elated about the outcome of Duterte’s accomplishments for the grant and investments portfolio in the country.

“I think that PRRD (President Rodrigo Roa Duterte) has raised the highest amount in ODA (official development assistance) in Philippine history – about $9 billion each from China and Japan. This is the biggest I think in history,” Dominguez said.

Lopez, in a separate message, shared the same view as he pointed out that the country gained $18 billion in only three months from Beijing and Tokyo.

Duterte has been in office for about six months.

Foreign Affairs Secretary Perfecto Yasay Jr. said the Japan aid package is significant in the wake of the US-led Millennium Challenge Corp.  decision to suspend its grant to the country.

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. . . this

Top Chinese official to meet Philippines' Duterte

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-philippines-china-idUKKBN1510G9

Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte will meet on Tuesday with China's Vice Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin, the most high-profile Chinese visitor since he took power last year and launched surprise moves to engage with historic rival Beijing.

Duterte will meet Liu late in the day in what presidential spokesman Ernesto Abella said was nothing more than a courtesy call.

Liu was meeting foreign ministry counterparts to discuss the "substantive issues of our bilateral arrangements," Abella said in a text message.

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Duterte says occupation in islands to only assert maritime rights
APRIL 11, 2017 LEAVE A COMMENT
PRESIDENT Rodrigo Duterte assured China that his order for the Armed Forces of the Philippines to occupy the nine islands in the South China Sea has no intention of provoking them but merely asserting its maritime rights to its exclusive properties.

“China can relax, we are friends. We will not go to war with you. We are just trying to maintain the balance of geopolitical situation there,” Duterte said during his departure speech before leaving for his official visits in the Middle East. (READ MORE)

http://specials.sunstar.com.ph/thepresident/2017/04/11/duterte-says-occupation-in-islands-to-only-assert-maritime-rights/

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[adroth]

Slowly but slowly . . . the pieces are falling into place. The sequencing, and pacing, of the timing is excruciating.

PH-Russia defense cooperation will be in the form of training: Esperon
Published April 21, 2017, 6:54 PM
By Argyll Cyrus Geducos

http://news.mb.com.ph/2017/04/21/ph-russia-defense-cooperation-will-be-in-the-form-of-training-esperon/

National Security Adviser Hermogenes Esperon, Friday (April 21) said that the defense cooperation between the Philippines and Russia would be in the form of training.

Esperon, in an interview after the President’s visit to the Russian guarded missile cruiser Varyag, said details about the said cooperation will be finalized during President Duterte’s visit to Moscow next month.

President Rodrigo Duterte visits the Russian warship vessel Varyag at Pier 15 in Manila on Friday, April 21, 2017. (Credits: Jansen Romero | Manila Bulletin)
President Rodrigo Duterte visits the Russian warship vessel Varyag at Pier 15 in Manila on Friday, April 21, 2017. (Credits: Jansen Romero | Manila Bulletin)

“Defense cooperation would come in the form of training. Probably some exchange of information,” he said.

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According to Esperon, Duterte visited the said ship, which is docked in Port Area, Manila, as a sign of good will after the President received an invitation.

“The visit of the president is also a show of good will no more, no less. It’s also our time to extend an invitation for them to come again. Which he did,” he said.

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Russian overtures continue . . .

From: https://www.facebook.com/CNNPhilippines/posts/1914731552100068





From: http://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/04/21/17/watch-russian-navy-officials-do-duterte-pose

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. . . arrangements with the US resume more openly. Only the dense would have really assumed that this had really changed in any meaningful way.

Talking about "making a statement"

FF15 deployed to Pagasa Island for SND Lorenzana's visit

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While the article implies a contrast in approaches . . .

. . . is it a true contrast of styles, or simply a matter of a delay action?

From balancing to appeasing China: The tales of two presidents
Thinking Beyond Politics
Renato Cruz De Castro

http://www.bworldonline.com/content.php?section=Opinion&title=from-balancing-to-appeasing-china-the-tales-of-two-presidents&id=142951

Posted on March 29, 2017

Prior to leaving for his visit to Myanmar on March 19, President Duterte entertained questions from journalists, who asked about China’s reported plan to build an environmental monitoring station on Scarborough Shoal. President Duterte emphatically admitted he could not stop the plans, saying “We cannot stop China from doing (these) things.” Instead, he turned the table on the journalists by asking, “What do you want me to do? Declare war against China? I can’t. We will lose all our military and policemen tomorrow and we (will be) destroyed as a nation.”

President Duterte offered a possible solution to the crisis: “Just keep (the waters) open and do not interfere with our (Philippine) coast guard.” He also dismissed concerns about China’s activities near Benham Rise, despite Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana’s warnings of Chinese survey ships loitering in the location for month-long periods.

The President appears determined to appease China as it expands its control of the South China Sea. A policy of appeasement involves efforts by a leader of a smaller state to conciliate or “buy off” an expansionist power by making unilateral diplomatic and strategic concessions.

Former President Aquino took a different approach, actively challenging China’s expansion despite its overwhelmingly economic and strategic capabilities. He did this by building up the Armed Forces of the Philippines’ (AFP) territorial defense capabilities. Why the change in behavior? A significant factor behind the Aquino administration’s efforts, despite the country’s military inadequacies, was the country’s alliance with the United States.

HARNESSING AMERICA’S ALLIANCES
The Aquino administration was aware that no amount of financial resources would enable the Philippines to face an assertive China in the South China Sea. The buildup of the AFP’s territorial defense capabilities was designed for limited deterrence and asymmetric combat, but not for naval warfare. Thus, the military buildup merely complemented the deterrence provided by US forward deployment and bilateral alliances in East Asia. The Aquino administration’s policy of challenging China’s expansion was predicated upon the US’ asserting its position as the dominant naval power in the Pacific area.

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The 3-way link-up that just keeps on giving for Duterte
Raul Dancel
Philippines Correspondent

http://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/the-3-way-link-up-that-just-keeps-on-giving-for-duterte

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A LITTLE GIVE-AND-TAKE

So, is Mr Duterte kowtowing to China?
A handout photo made available by the Presidential Photographers Division shows Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte during a tour of a Chinese naval ship in Davao City, southern Philippines. He gave three Chinese warships the red-carpet treatment inA handout photo made available by the Presidential Photographers Division shows Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte during a tour of a Chinese naval ship in Davao City, southern Philippines. He gave three Chinese warships the red-carpet treatment in his home town - an honour he has not bestowed on any other navy, not even Russia's. PHOTO: EUROPEAN PRESSPHOTO AGENCY

Not really. He has taken from China, even as he gives. He has won concessions that Beijing would never have agreed to under his predecessor, Mr Benigno Aquino, who initiated the arbitration case that struck down China's South China Sea claims and plunged Philippine-Chinese ties to historic lows.

After about five years, Filipino fishermen are back at Scarborough Shoal, a contested atoll in the South China Sea. They are no longer being chased away with water cannon, bullhorns and guns by China's coast guard. They are now exchanging cigarettes and fish, instead of angry words, with the Chinese.

In a few weeks, the Philippine military will begin long-delayed construction works on Thitu. Navy engineers will soon be repaving the island's derelict runway, and building a new harbour, fish port and barracks there. China had, till now, been harassing supply runs to Thitu and the Philippines' other outposts in the South China Sea.

Mr Duterte, meanwhile, walked home with more than US$24 billion (S$33.7 billion) in investments and grants after his October state visit to China. He can expect to secure more for his ambitious US$100 billion infrastructure programme from the Obor summit.
THE MIDDLE GROUND

So, what do we make of Mr Duterte?

He is just being consistent. He thinks the Philippines has drifted too much towards the US, and a correction is long overdue. He wants to bring his nation closer to the centre, equidistant from Beijing and Washington.

Look closely, and you will see that while he has been very accommodating towards China, there has not been any fundamental shift in US-Philippine relations. He may have called America a "nation of hypocrites" and former president Barack Obama a "son of a bitch", and complained about the presence of American troops on Philippine soil, but he has not upended decades-long defence arrangements between the Philippines and the US.

This is why Washington is not losing any sleep over Mr Duterte. Not yet, at least. At the end of the day, it still holds all the cards, not China. It has a "mutual defence treaty", a "visiting forces agreement", and a defence agreement that allow it to station troops in the Philippines and have access to staging areas.

Not even Mr Duterte can unravel those arrangements, without risking a costly squabble with the Senate, where his hold is tenuous, or provoking a population that is still largely pro-American.

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Is Rodrigo Duterte Really Anti-American?

The Philippine president’s actions prove that this label is far too simplistic.
By Mong Palatino
May 13, 2017

http://thediplomat.com/2017/05/is-rodrigo-duterte-really-anti-american/
 
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has a reputation of being a staunch critic of the United States government. However, it is probably more accurate to describe him as being critical of former U.S. President Barack Obama but not of current President Donald Trump.

A few months after becoming president in 2016, Duterte launched a series of tirades against Obama whose government expressed concern about the Philippines’ bloody war on drugs. Duterte insisted that the United States has no moral high ground to speak about human rights since it has yet to apologize for the crimes it committed during its colonial occupation of the Philippines.

Duterte was the first Filipino leader to speak so publicly and fiercely about the violence used by the U.S. government in subjugating the Filipino nation in 1899. Because of this, Duterte was praised by nationalists and his allies from the left.

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Duterte’s anti-America rhetoric was so persuasive that it made him the poster child of many groups which want the United States to be accountable for its “meddling” in the affairs of sovereign nations. Indeed, Duterte continues to enjoy this reputation, despite the fact that he has actually already toned down his statements against the United States. He also has continually praised Trump and even emphasized that both of them are controversial politicians who won against all odds.

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While it is true that Duterte has established closer links with China and Russia, this in fact has yet to translate into the abandonment of the country’s political, economic, military, and cultural ties with the United States. Duterte’s actions and pronouncements in recent months have proved that it is far too simplistic to dismiss him as an anti-American leader.

Duterte had enough time, public support, and the numbers in Congress in the past ten months to cancel all military and political agreements that perpetuate the “unequal relationship” between the United States and the Philippines if he wanted to. But aside from honoring these military agreements, Duterte seems ready to improve his relationship with the Trump government.

Is Duterte pro-China or anti-America? What we learned in the past few months is that Duterte’s mindset cannot be ascertained by his rants but by his actions and the policies implemented by his subordinates.

What is clear is that he succeeded in recalibrating the country’s foreign policy. For his supporters, this is an achievement that reflects Duterte’s vision of an independent foreign policy. His critics, however, is disappointed about the disruption it caused on how the country should assert its claims in the South China Sea.

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Rodrigo Duterte Is Key to China's 'Post-American' Vision for Asia
“Dutertenomics” will require huge investment from abroad. Beijing is the perfect patron.
Richard Javad Heydarian
May 24, 2017

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/rodrigo-duterte-key-chinas-post-american-vision-asia-20825

“The future of the Philippines is in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and in Asia,” declared Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte during his early May keynote speech at the World Economic Forum in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. For the controversial Philippine president, the world is ineludibly entering a post-American world, paving the way for his own vision of an “Asia for Asians.” Despite facing stiff opposition at home, the firebrand leader has forged ahead with his pivot to the east, especially China and, to a lesser degree, Russia. There are two factors that lie at the heart of Duterte’s “Looking East” foreign-policy strategy. First is his growing personal vexation with the West’s criticism of his brutal campaign against illegal drugs, which will likely be followed by sanctions and other punitive measures. Second is the need to diversify the Philippines’ highly concentrated (in the West and Japan) strategic and economic relations.

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Contrary to nay-sayer's fears about Duterte's verbiage, unconventional statements aren't enough to undo 71 years of history.

Time to watch who ups the ante.

Is China fear of ISIS attacks on its own western borders keeping it away internal Philippine affairs?

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China supports PHL’s fight against Maute, other Islamists in Marawi
Published June 12, 2017 5:49pm

http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/nation/614176/china-supports-phl-s-fight-against-maute-other-islamists-in-marawi/story/

China supports the Philippine government's "anti-terrorism" operations against Islamist militants in Marawi City, the Chinese foreign ministry said Monday, days after it was reported that US special forces provided support to Filipino troops.

On Saturday, the US Embassy in Manila said special forces were assisting the Philippine military with ongoing operations in Marawi City, which insurgents belonging to the Maute group and aided by foreign militants, laid siege on May 23.

But Philippine authorities said the assistance was limited to "technical support."

"Terrorism is the common enemy of mankind. China understands and firmly supports (Philippine President Rodrigo) Duterte's leadership and its government in fighting terrorism," Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang told a regular press briefing.

"We support these antiterrorism operations," he said.

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JUSMAG "speaks" . . . in kind.

http://defenseph.net/drp/index.php?topic=1852.0

From the forum's FB extension

https://www.facebook.com/groups/rpdefense/permalink/1334581496627694/

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AFP gets new weapons from US
By Michael Punongbayan and Pia Lee-Brago (The Philippine Star) | Updated June 6, 2017 - 12:00am

http://thediplomat.com/2017/06/us-terror-aid-to-philippines-signals-enduring-defense-ties-under-duterte/

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Officials from the Joint United States Military Assistance Group (JUSMAG) turned over the weapons and equipment delivered recently under the US government’s Counterterrorism Train and Equip Program.

U.S. Pacific Fleet Commander Reaffirms Commitment to Philippines, Strong Defense Ties with Philippine Leaders
Home | News & Events | U.S. Pacific Fleet Commander Reaffirms Commitment to Philippines, Strong Defense Ties with Philippine Leaders

https://ph.usembassy.gov/us-pacific-fleet-commander-reaffirms-commitment-to-philippines/

Manila, June 14, 2017 — Adm. Scott Swift, commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, visited the Republic of the Philippines June 11-14 to reaffirm the U.S. Navy’s strong partnership and ties with the Armed Forces of the Philippines.

During his visit to the Philippines, Swift met with Secretary of Foreign Affairs Alan Peter Cayetano, Secretary of National Defense Delfin N. Lorenzana, Armed Forces of the Philippines Chief of Staff General Eduardo Año, and Philippine Navy Flag Officer in-Command Vice Adm. Ronald J.S. Mercado. Swift stressed the U.S. Pacific Fleet’s commitment to addressing shared regional security concerns including counterterrorism and piracy, while highlighting the strong defense ties between the U.S. and the Philippines.

“The Philippine Navy is a valued and enduring ally of the U.S. Navy and a close partner of the Pacific Fleet,” said Swift. “I’m very pleased to have had the opportunity to visit with senior government and military leaders here in Manila. We continue to build on the strong relationship we have and to reaffirm our commitment to working together to face shared challenges.”

The long-standing alliance between the Philippines and the United States has contributed to peace, stability, and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific region for more than 70 years. As part of the security partnership, the United States supports the Philippines in its efforts to strengthen national defense, and improve its ability to respond to natural disasters, terror threats, piracy, and other transnational crimes.