Weak nations playing great powers off each other

[adroth]

The thread shows our problem with China in a nutshell: they account for 24.5% of our exports, and 18.8% of our imports. More than any other country, including either Japan and the US. Europe barely registers in the official stats. The dragon has us by the balls . . . they know it . . . and aren't shy about pressing their advantage. The relative weakness of the AFP is only secondary to their holding our economy hostage. The challenge to our generation is not how fast we can buy Frigates, MRFs, or even missiles. It is how fast we can neutralize China's economic death grip. #fightsmart

====

From: https://psa.gov.ph/content/highlights-philippine-export-and-import-statistics-june-2017

7.  JAPAN ACCOUNTS FOR 18.5 PERCENT OF TOTAL EXPORTS IN JUNE 2017
Total export receipts from the country’s top ten market destinations for the month of June 2017 were valued at $4.13 billion or 84.2 percent share of the total (Table 6).

Japan, including Okinawa, ranked first, accounting for 18.5 percent of total exports, with export receipts valued at $909.17 million in June 2017. It recorded a decrease of 9.0 percent from $999.61 million in the same month of the previous year.

United States of America (USA), including Alaska and Hawaii, ranked second with revenue amounting to $697.75 million, comprising 14.2 percent share of the total exports for June 2017.  It decreased by 8.7 percent from $764.63 million recorded in June 2016.

Hong Kong ranked third with $667.50 million or 13.6 percent share of the total exports.  It grew by 12.6 percent from $592.67 million in the same month the previous year.

People’s Republic of China, with 10.9 percent share of total exports, ranked fourth with shipments valued at $535.62 million.  It went down by 2.4 percent from $548.53 million in the same month the previous year.

Singapore placed fifth, representing 6.1 percent share of total exports, with export earnings worth $299.52 million. It decreased by 7.1 percent from $322.56 million posted in June 2016.

Other top ten market destinations for   June 2017 were: Thailand, $214.32 million; Republic of Korea, $213.01 million; Germany, $206.80 million; Taiwan, $204.38 million; and Netherlands, $186.87 million.



8.  IMPORTS FROM PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA ACCOUNT FOR 18.8 PERCENT
Total payments for the top ten imports for June 2017 amounted to $5.60 billion or 79.4 percent of the total.

People’s Republic of China remained the country’s biggest source of imports at 18.8 percent share in June 2017.  Payments were recorded at $1.33 billion, a decrease of 3.7 percent from $1.38 billion in June 2016.

Japan, including Okinawa came second, contributing 12.8 percent or $901.12 million to the total import bill in June 2017.  It grew by 0.5 percent from the June 2016 value of $896.88 million.   

Thailand placed third, accounting for 7.7 percent share of the total imports worth $545.24 million in   June   2017.   It went up by 0.1 percent from   $544.44  million in  June 2016.

Republic of Korea was the fourth biggest source of imports for June 2017 with 7.7 percent share of the total import bills amounting to $542.02 million, an increase of 16.0 percent from $467.36 million  in June 2016.

United States of America (USA), including Alaska and Hawaii ranked fifth, accounting for 7.3 percent share of the total import bills in June  2017.  It went down by 8.2 percent from $558.93 million in June 2016 to $513.27 million in June 2017.

Other   major sources of imports for the month of June 2017 were: Indonesia, $483.76 million; Singapore, $443.76 million; Taiwan, $339.77 million; Malaysia (includes Sabah and Sarawak), $282.74 million; and Hong Kong, $225.37 million.

====

Meanwhile, for folks who pine for the days when the world was simply divided between the US and whatever counted as the US' adversary . . .

Congress passes short-term deal to stave off shutdown, setting up late-December spending fight
By Mike DeBonis December 7 at 9:45 PM

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/congress-set-to-delay-shutdown-setting-up-bigger-spending-fight-later/2017/12/07/6b6712fa-db51-11e7-b1a8-62589434a581_story.html?utm_term=.e279cc899ade

Congress passed a short-term spending deal Thursday, sending to President Trump a bill to avert a partial government shutdown and setting up a heated budget fight later this month.

Trump has indicated that he will sign the deal, preventing a government stoppage that had been set to take effect at 12:01 a.m. Saturday.

The deal does not resolve numerous debates over domestic spending, immigration and funding for the military that brought the government to the brink of partial closure, leaving party leaders with a new Dec. 22 deadline to keep the government open.

< Edited >

====

[adroth]

The enemy of my enemy is my friend

Jan 25 2018

Duterte says India a ‘rising superpower’ | ABS-CBN news

Duterte is in India to attend the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) - India Commemorative Summit and India's Republic Day celebration, where he and fellow regional leaders were considered chief guests.

India’s invitation is widely seen as a charm offensive in the face of economic powerhouse China's diplomatic moves in Southeast Asia.

“Politically, the Philippine President described India as a 'rising superpower' that has a moderating effect in international relations,” Roque said in a news conference in New Delhi.

“The President emphasized the commonality between the Philippines and India and that is the pursuit of an independent foreign policy.”

Some analysts see India, the world’s largest democracy, as a counter to China’s military and economic might.

=====

Duterte: PH to consider acquiring arms from India | Inquirer

Upon arriving here for the India-Asean Commemorative Summit, the Philippine leader sat down with Modi for an hour to discuss economic and political ties between their countries and even the possibility of a military cooperation.

“There was a commitment, in fact, for the Philippines to purchase Indian military hardware,” presidential spokesperson Harry Roque told a press briefing here.

Asked afterward to elaborate, he said the issue came up when Modi broached his country’s capability in producing military weapons.

“The Prime Minister said they have expertise in ships and other military hardware, so President Duterte manifested that in the same way he has decided to purchase weapons from China and Russia, he will also consider purchasing Indian weapons,” Roque said.

The Malacañang official said Mr. Duterte also thanked India for its support in the rehabilitation of Marawi City, particularly a cash donation of $500,000 for the rebuilding effort.

The two leaders, at Mr. Duterte’s prompting, also talked of a possible military relationship between India and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) to combat terrorism and piracy in the high seas, according to Roque.

[adroth]

Protection of Philippine interests requires an unvarnished look at both friends and foes alike

Asia under Trump: How the US is losing the region to China
By Ben Westcott, CNN

Updated 12:14 PM PHT Sun, January 28, 2018

http://cnnphilippines.com/news/2018/01/28/asia-china-united-states-trump-xi.html

(CNN) — In just one year, U.S. President Donald Trump has changed the way Asia looks at the United States.

The cornerstones of American power in Asia, Japan, Australia, and South Korea, all lost a little faith in their longtime close ally and protector in 2017, according to Gallup polling.

No military assets have been withdrawn, no embassies closed, but the lack of interest expressed by a U.S. administration focused on "America First" has deeply shaken its status in the region.

"Nowadays when we attend international conferences (around Asia), nobody really talks about the United States anymore ... it's a little bit strange," Chisuke Masuo, associate professor at Kyushu University's Graduate School of Social and Cultural Studies, told CNN.

Uncertainty about America's commitment to the region has prompted local leaders to strengthen ties with each other, to prepare for the day when the US no longer has their backs.

< Edited >

[Invictus]

AFP welcomes expansion of security ties with India
By Priam Nepomuceno  February 2, 2018, 12:43 pm

MANILA -- President Rodrigo Duterte's efforts to expand further ties with India, especially those dealing with security, is a "welcome development" saying it provides the Philippine military a "wider and broader cooperation" with other Asian counterparts, an official of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) said Friday.

"Remember that this is not only India we have been having military-to-military engagements, we have had Pakistan in the past, we have had Russia, China, Brunei, Australia of course the United States of America"

The expansion of security ties with India is beneficial to the Philippines as the country's military can look at their training and equipment which can be acquired for AFP's use, Arevalo added.

He said a technical working group is now looking into possible Indian defense equipment which can be acquired for the AFP.

[adroth]

Even the Asean Maritime Transparency Institute is begrudgingly admitting that the administration's strategy is slowing China's advance.

Getting them feel what you want them to feel . . .

. . . while doing something else . . .

. . . is at the heart of statecraft

China squeezing every ounce of chance from PH on Scarborough issue–expert
By: Frances G. Mangosing - @inquirerdotnet INQUIRER.net / 07:25 PM February 02, 2018


China will hold off from building in the contested Scarborough Shoal (Panatag Shoal) until they have “extracted as much as they can” from the current administration, a maritime expert said Friday.

“There’s a political decision that if China FEELS right now it is winning, why provoke crisis with the Duterte administration?” Greg Poling, director of Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, told reporters Friday.

Reports circulated last year that China was preparing to build an environmental monitoring station on Scarborough Shoal.

But President Rodrigo Duterte is holding on to a promise made by China last year that it will not build on Scarborough Shoal. Filipino fishermen were also allowed to fish in the shoal but with Chinese coast guard ships nearby.

“Last year, [Defense] Secretary [Delfin] Lorenzana said he expects the Chinese to eventually build something over Scarborough. I do, too. It’s a matter of when, not if. It’s a matter of what they built so maybe they won’t build another giant island….maybe it’s a small facility,” Poling said.

< Edited >


Read more: http://globalnation.inquirer.net/163779/china-squeezing-every-ounce-of-chance-from-ph-on-scarborough-expert#ixzz567Ce5TOT
Follow us: @inquirerdotnet on Twitter | inquirerdotnet on Facebook

====

In the meantime . . . to the north of the Philippines . . .

https://thediplomat.com/2018/02/destroyer-visit-puts-japan-philippines-military-ties-in-the-spotlight/

Destroyer Visit Puts Japan-Philippines Military Ties in the Spotlight

Engagement caps an active week for bilateral defense relations.

By Prashanth Parameswaran
February 02, 2018

On Friday, a Japanese destroyer arrived in the Philippines as part of a goodwill visit. The interaction was another demonstration of the ties between the two countries in the maritime realm and part of an active week for bilateral defense ties.

As I have observed before in these pages, despite lingering uncertainties and some refocusing following the election of Duterte, Japan-Philippines defense ties have nonetheless continued strengthening in some areas of the maritime realm as part of their broader partnership.

That comes as no surprise. Japan has been looking to strengthen ties with Southeast Asian states, including defense ties. Meanwhile, the Philippine military, including the Philippine Coast Guard and the Philippine Navy, need all the help they can get from allies and partners like the United States, Japan, and Australia. The Philippines has limited capability to cover over 7,000 islands with a tenth of the world’s coastline amid a series of challenges ranging from the South China Sea to terrorism.

Japan’s assistance to the Philippines includes several lines of effort, from capacity-building to training to defense equipment transfers. One manifestation of this relationship that was in the headlines this week was the maiden deployment of a Japanese-donated patrol pane to a shoal disputed between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea. The Philippine military said that the TC-90 Beechcraft King Air aircraft flew around Scarborough Shoal on its first mission for the Philippine Navy without encountering a challenge from the Chinese Coast Guard.

On February 2, in yet another demonstration of the military ties between the two countries, a Japanese destroyer arrived in the Philippines for a three-day visit. The JS Amagiri, which has one patrol helicopter and around 200 personnel, will be in the Philippines until February 4, according to information disclosed by the Philippine Navy earlier this week. This is reportedly the first such visit by a Japanese military vessel to the Philippines for 2018.

According to the Philippine Navy, the destroyer, which was escorted by the PN vessel BRP Rajah Humabon to its designated anchorage area, will participate in a range of activities during its visit. This includes courtesy calls on Philippine officers, a shipboard tour of the JS Amagiri, goodwill activities like basketball and soccer, as well as a Passing Exercise (PASSEX) that will cap off the port visit.

Reflecting on the significance of the visit in what was an active week for Japan-Philippines defense relations, Captain Koji Saito, commander of Escort Division Two of the JMSDF, noted that the visit, along with the transfer of the TC-90s, represented “remarkable proof that shows our strong navy-to-navy relations,” in remarks reported by Philippine media outlets.

[adroth]

Is our position on the left a pragmatic response to the position on the right?

From: Office of the President

[adroth]

The Chinese bureaucracy is not a monolithic entity and is not immune to infighting. Therein lies the value in creating contacts at various levels of that bureaucracy . . . and side-stepping the Chinese diplomatic corps.

The more we REALLY know about the enemy . . . and the more direct contacts we have at various levels of the bureaucracy . . . the better able the Philippines will be to advance OUR agenda. It is through those measures -- along with the strengthening of our economic defenses -- that we will prevail against the dragon.

Xi Jinping decides to abolish presidential term limits
Mar 1st 2018 | BEIJING

https://www.economist.com/news/china/21737543-unhappiness-china-palpable-xi-jinping-decides-abolish-presidential-term-limits

BLOGGERS in China surpassed themselves in their ingenuity after the Communist Party announced its plan to get rid of presidential term limits, which would have required Xi Jinping to step down as head of state in 2023. One online commentator posted a picture of Winnie-the-Pooh hugging a jar of honey, with the caption “Find the thing you love and stick with it.” The Bear of Very Little Brain is used in China as code for the portly Mr Xi—the post was swiftly deleted by humourless censors. Others posted mock condom advertisements with tag lines such as “Doing it twice is not enough” and “I like how you’re always on top.” (The manufacturer solemnly informed readers that these were fakes.) Other banned terms included “I disagree”, “Animal Farm” (the novel), “emigrate”, “board the plane” (dengji, which also sounds like “ascend the throne”) and “Yuan Shikai”, an early 20th-century warlord who declared himself emperor and died six months later.

Censorship makes judging public reaction in China hard. But there was more inventive mockery in response to the startling announcement on February 25th than there was during the country’s biggest political event of the past few years, a party congress last October. There was also some unusual open dissent. A prominent former editor, Li Datong, and a well-known businesswoman, Wang Ying, both appealed to the legislature through WeChat, a social-media platform, demanding that it reject what Ms Wang called an “outright betrayal”. Many Chinese, it seems, regard scrapping term limits as a return to the bad old days of strongman rule.

Such limits may not matter much in themselves (they will be formally abolished at an annual session of the rubber-stamp parliament, which starts on March 5th). The presidency is a weak office. Mr Xi could stay in power as the party’s general secretary and military chief, to which term limits do not apply. But the abolition is still important partly because it is the clearest evidence that Mr Xi does, in fact, plan to ignore convention that party chiefs step down after ten years, and keep all of his jobs after 2023. It also pierces the veil of politics and shows what kind of ruler he wants to be. At a time when he is trying to boost China’s image globally as a modern, outward-looking and responsible state, the political system he governs seems premodern, opaque and treacherous.

The system itself is extremely unusual. China has two ladders of authority: the government and the party. The party hierarchy outranks the state one. In other countries, the ministers of finance and foreign affairs (government jobs) are usually the most important ones after the president or prime minister. In China, they are not even in the top 25. Neither man is a member of the Politburo, let alone its inner sanctum, the Politburo Standing Committee. Formally, the People’s Liberation Army is controlled by the party, not the government. In one respect, though, Chinese politics is all too normal. As with other Leninist systems, it is bedevilled by the problem of leadership succession. Of the 11 party leaders since 1921 (seven since the party seized power in 1949), only one—Mr Xi’s predecessor, Hu Jintao—has stepped down from all his posts in accordance with a timetable. Seven were executed or purged.

In the 1980s, reacting to the chaos of the Mao era, Deng Xiaoping tried to make the system more orderly and predictable by introducing new rules, norms and precedents. These included the reinstitution of the post of president (there had not been one since 1968), along with a two-term limit for the holder of that office as well as the vice-president. Mandatory retirement ages were also introduced. After Mao’s one-man freak show, Deng argued that China needed “collective leadership”. In a speech in 1980 he said the system should avoid an “over-concentration of power”, which, he warned, was “liable to give rise to arbitrary rule”. He said it should make a clearer separation between the party and the government. And it had to “solve the problem of succession in leadership”. Before he resigned in 1989 as head of the party’s Central Military Commission, Deng said his final task was to “take the lead in establishing a retirement system”.

As the abolition of term limits shows, he failed—or at least, his reforms failed to rein in Mr Xi. Instead of avoiding an over-concentration of powers, the president has made himself chairman of everything. Instead of separating party from state, he has injected party control into areas which had once been relatively free of it, such as private companies (see article). Now he has cast aside Deng’s efforts to introduce a system of succession by timetable.

< Edited >

===

You can't identify these cracks in the Chinese system . . . and exploit them to our benefit . . . if you do not have links at multiple levels across the whole spectrum of the Chinese government. THAT is where the value of this engagement lies. The "learning" here, is also about learning more about these weaknesses

PDP-Laban out to learn ideology from Communist Party of China


Who better to help the Philippines "learn" about these fractures than intelligence officers who are sent to China to "learn" from them?

Duterte eyes China training for PHL military

[adroth]

Heydarian talks about "strategic resistance" as a third alternative to suicidal war (option 1) or graceful accommodation (option 2). If what Duterte is already doing doesn't fall under strategic resistance . . . then we have a need for a "fourth option". One that defends our sovereignty and buys us time to catch up with our ASEAN neighbor's economic and military capabilities so that we can mount a more effective defense against the Chinese bully.

Day after day, what we hear are unmistakably defeatist statements, which reflect the creeping grip of strategic fatalism among our leadership. Case in point is the false argument that our options in the West Philippine Sea, and increasingly in the Benham Rise, are a suicidal war or graceful accommodation. 

This could be no farther from the truth, since, as Buddha would have counseled, there is always the third, more moderate path forward. And that is called "strategic resistance."

If the following actions don't constitute "strategic resistance" . . .

Duterte insists West PH Sea et. al. belong to PH

Philippine protests against China under Duterte

. . . then a fourth approach is called for. 

Vietnam, a country far poorer than the Philippines and with no superpower ally, has gradually built up its own defensive capacity, knowing it only needs a minimum credible deterrence to protect its precious resources and territorial claims across the South China Sea.

It's worth noting that Vietnam already has . . .

An island in the WPS, which was taken from the Philippines that had a sheltered port as of 2014

Expansion of facilities by 2014

While the PAF is still re-learning fighter operations, Vietnam already has . . .

Photo from airliners.net

Vietnam already operates Kilo class submarines

Lễ hạ thuỷ tàu kilo. Ảnh: TTXVN.

Indonesia, on the other hand, has renamed the waters off the coast of Natuna islands as North Natuna Sea, an explicit rejection of China's vague but expanding claims beyond the South China Sea basin and well into the Southeast Asian country's exclusive economic zone. 

Jakarta, which has similar per capita income as the Philippines and without any superpower ally, is also stepping up its crackdown on illegal fishing by Chinese elements within its waters, while deploying a larger share of its resources to maritime security.

Like Vietnam, Indonesia has a fully functional air arm

F16.net - Indonesia

Two Indonesian vipers, fully armed with 4x AIM-9 and 2x AGM-65 missiles, flying low (200 ft) over Gulf Of Popoh, South of East Java Province. [Photo by Capt.Agung "Sharky" Sasongkojati]
-

TNI-AU F-16A #TS-1606 in the Indonesian AF's Elang Biru (Blue Falcons) Demonstration Team's color scheme. The team's aircraft have an operational task as well as evidenced by the 4x AIM-9 and 2x AGM-65 missiles on this aircraft. [Photo by Major Agung "Sharky" Sasongkojati]

. . . has the oldest submarine fleet in South East Asia

The Indonesian Navy's first Type 209/1400 submarine, pictured at its launching ceremony on 24 March in Okpo. Source: DSME

. . . and has a very active indigenous defense industry. The PN even bought its two LSDs from them

Both Japan and South Korea, which happen to be top trading partners of China, have also resisted Beijing's maritime push into the East China and Yellow Seas, respectively. In several occasions, South Korea went so far as shooting to death illegal Chinese fishermen encroaching into the Yellow Sea.

Japan is the third largest economy in the world . . . and South Korea is, among other things, the largest shipbuilder in the world.

[adroth]

Singapore PM tells ASEAN to adjust to new power balance
Lee says region can benefit from China, India despite their "tidal pulls"

KENTARO IWAMOTO, Nikkei staff writer

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/International-Relations/Singapore-PM-tells-ASEAN-to-adjust-to-new-power-balance?n_cid=NARAN012

SINGAPORE -- The Association of Southeast Asian Nations should adjust to a new power balance in Asia so that individual members and the group can benefit from increasingly influential China and India, Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said in a lecture on Tuesday.

The city-state is this year's chair of the 10-member bloc.

Speaking at an event to mark the 50th anniversary of the ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute, a Singapore-based research center focused on Southeast Asian studies, Lee said that ASEAN "has to adjust to a strategic balance which is shifting both globally and in the region."

Lee specifically noted the rising power of China and India. "New powers are growing in strength and influence, especially China and India. Individual ASEAN countries must adapt to the new and changing strategic landscape."

This is because the two big countries, he said, will provide opportunities for ASEAN countries.

< Edited >

[adroth]

Only a couple of years ago, people were up in arms over the administration's statements that would "ruin" PH-US relations, as well as relations with other traditional allies.

Fast-forward to today.

Expanded Balikatan drills to include Japan, Australia
Reuters

Posted at Apr 19 2018 06:47 PM

http://news.abs-cbn.com/news/04/19/18/expanded-balikatan-drills-to-include-japan-australia

MANILA—Annual US-Philippine military exercises involving thousands of troops will be expanded for the first time to include other countries, with Japanese and Australian forces invited to join what will be the 34th edition of the "war games."

The Philippines and the United States have been holding the "Balikatan" drills annually to test the readiness of their militaries to respond to threats that include natural disasters and militant extremist attacks.

The US embassy in Manila said in a statement on Thursday Australia and Japan, two US allies countries with strategic partnerships with the Philippines, would join the exercises taking place in multiple locations on the main island of Luzon, starting on May 7.

< Edited >


=====

[adroth]

A little over a year ago . . . some folks were up-in-arms at Duterte's supposed "insult" directed at the Japanese for not openly accepting Japan's help to provide weapons. A faux pas with consequences they said.

Well . . . fast forward to today . . .

From: https://www.facebook.com/groups/rpdefense/permalink/1660427604043080/

On May 8, 30, the p-1 Patrol aircraft of the maritime self-Defense force implemented a friendly training with the Philippine Navy C-90, in the sea area around palawan.

(8 May) The JMSDF patrol air craft P-1 conducted goodwill exercise with Philippine Navy beachcraft C-90 in the waters and air around Palawan Island, Philippine.

====

[SG99n1]

A little over a year ago . . . some folks were up-in-arms at Duterte's supposed "insult" directed at the Japanese for not openly accepting Japan's help to provide weapons. A faux pas with consequences they said.

Well . . . fast forward to today . . .

From: https://www.facebook.com/groups/rpdefense/permalink/1660427604043080/

On May 8, 30, the p-1 Patrol aircraft of the maritime self-Defense force implemented a friendly training with the Philippine Navy C-90, in the sea area around palawan.

(8 May) The JMSDF patrol air craft P-1 conducted goodwill exercise with Philippine Navy beachcraft C-90 in the waters and air around Palawan Island, Philippine.

====

just to add info.
march 9,2016
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-philippines/philippines-to-lease-planes-from-japan-to-patrol-disputed-sea-idUSKCN0WB0TL

The Philippine military, for decades preoccupied with domestic insurgencies, has been shifting its focus to territorial defense, allocating 83 billion pesos ($1.77 billion) until 2017 to upgrade and modernize its air force and navy.

“We are also leasing from Japan five TC-90 training aircraft to assist our navy in patrolling our territories, particularly in the West Philippine Sea,” he said, referring to the Spratly archipelago in the South China Sea.

He did not say when the Japanese aircraft would arrive.

[adroth]

Duterte keeping options open on whether to run to US or China for assistance
Published May 24, 2018, 7:55 PM
By Genalyn Kabiling

https://news.mb.com.ph/2018/05/24/duterte-keeping-options-open-on-whether-to-run-to-us-or-china-for-assistance/

In case of an outbreak of Islamic State-linked violence in Mindanao, President Duterte is keeping his options open on whether to run to the United States or China for assistance.

The President wondered if the US would be ready to die for Filipinos or if he would be forced to get help from China instead.

“Because of the threat here in Mindanao, you must have an option of where to go,” Duterte said during the inauguration of the Davao river bridge widening project in Davao City.

“Is America ready to die for us? Are they ready to send their troops here? Or can I call China for more arms because we do not have it?” he added.

Duterte admitted that the terror threat was part of the reason he refuses to wage war with China over the territorial conflict in the South China Sea.

“Kung makipag-away pa ako dito tapos papasok pa ang ISIS dito, mag-giyera pa ako ng China, saan ako pupunta? Where do you think would we end up?” he asked.

< Edited >

[adroth]

From: https://pcoo.gov.ph/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/20180522-Speech_of_President_Rodrigo_Roa_Duterte_during_the_120th_Philippine_Navy_Anniversary.pdf

"Ladies and gentlemen, I would have wanted to share with you my insights in the matter of the West Philippine Sea, its dynamics and, of course, the implication of geopolitics. But for lack of material time, I may do it some other venue which I think you‟d be more comfortable to wait and listen to the policy.

It has something to do with my desire to defend but at the same time not to make any move that would be destructive to the nation. I cannot afford at this time to go to war. I cannot go into a battle which I cannot win and it would only result in the destruction and
probably a lot of losses for our Armed Forces.

Ako gusto ko, I really want to do something to assert. But you know, when I assumed the presidency, there was already this ruckus in the West Philippine Sea. It used to be China Sea.

And because in my simple calculation, in every common sense that‟s available to me, I would have taken a stronger but probably a more violent way of doing it. And I said in my own estimation, it would be a great loss to the nation and probably end up losing a war. And all of these things I have wanted to made known to you and whether you accept it or not, that is the reality on the ground.

It‟s geopolitics. You well know what are at stake. I cannot rely just on one nation and country to defend us and maybe to help us in our hour of need"

- Duterte

[adroth]

Relationship building continues

Slowly but slowly . . . the pieces are falling into place. The sequencing, and pacing, of the timing is excruciating.

PH-Russia defense cooperation will be in the form of training: Esperon
Published April 21, 2017, 6:54 PM
By Argyll Cyrus Geducos

http://news.mb.com.ph/2017/04/21/ph-russia-defense-cooperation-will-be-in-the-form-of-training-esperon/

National Security Adviser Hermogenes Esperon, Friday (April 21) said that the defense cooperation between the Philippines and Russia would be in the form of training.

Esperon, in an interview after the President’s visit to the Russian guarded missile cruiser Varyag, said details about the said cooperation will be finalized during President Duterte’s visit to Moscow next month.

President Rodrigo Duterte visits the Russian warship vessel Varyag at Pier 15 in Manila on Friday, April 21, 2017. (Credits: Jansen Romero | Manila Bulletin)
President Rodrigo Duterte visits the Russian warship vessel Varyag at Pier 15 in Manila on Friday, April 21, 2017. (Credits: Jansen Romero | Manila Bulletin)

“Defense cooperation would come in the form of training. Probably some exchange of information,” he said.

< Edited >

According to Esperon, Duterte visited the said ship, which is docked in Port Area, Manila, as a sign of good will after the President received an invitation.

“The visit of the president is also a show of good will no more, no less. It’s also our time to extend an invitation for them to come again. Which he did,” he said.

< Edited >

=====

Russian overtures continue . . .

From: https://www.facebook.com/CNNPhilippines/posts/1914731552100068





From: http://news.abs-cbn.com/video/news/04/21/17/watch-russian-navy-officials-do-duterte-pose

. . . arrangements with the US resume more openly. Only the dense would have really assumed that this had really changed in any meaningful way.

Talking about "making a statement"

FF15 deployed to Pagasa Island for SND Lorenzana's visit

[/quote]

Defense attache assigned

Russia to send first designated defense attaché to PH
By Joyce Ann L. Rocamora  June 28, 2018, 1:13 pm

http://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1039762

MANILA -- Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday has signed an order to send his country's first designated defense attaché to the Philippines, the Russian Embassy in Manila announced Thursday.

The move, according to the embassy, signals Moscow's determination to strengthen military and technical cooperation with Manila.

According to Natalia Naumova, press attaché at the embassy, no specific person was designated yet.

"It was the principal decision to establish such position at the Embassy. (We) will start working on it now as we have the frameworks," she told the Philippine News Agency.

The Russian leader's order comes more than a month after the Philippines sent its first defense attaché to Moscow.

As per an earlier post by Philippine Ambassador to Russia Carlos Sorreta, Col. Dennis Pastor was with his administrative assistant T/Sgt. Pablito Igne when he reported for duty in May 2018 as head of the Office of Defense Attaché in the Philippine Embassy.

He described the sending of a Philippine defense attaché to Russia as the "first time in over 40 years" of relations between the two states.

The bilateral relations of the two countries continue to improve since President Rodrigo Duterte assumed office in 2016.

Meanwhile, defense cooperation between Moscow and Manila developed further after the signing of the Agreement on Defense Cooperation and the Agreement on Military-Technical Cooperation in 2017. (PNA)

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