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adroth

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US-China trade war: Moving to Vietnam to avoid sanctions
« on: July 21, 2019, 02:51:07 PM »
US-China trade war: Moving to Vietnam to avoid sanctions
By Reality Check team
BBC News
20 May 2019

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-48273550

Companies operating in China are facing stiff increases in tariffs on exports to the United States as the trade war between the two countries escalates.

So, there's an incentive for manufacturers in China to move their production to countries not subject to these tariffs.

And one of these beneficiary countries has been Vietnam, China's increasingly business-friendly southern neighbour.

The first thing to note is that foreign firms, including those from China, have long taken advantage of Vietnam's cheaper labour and attractive business environment, well before the imposition of the first round of US sanctions last September.

"Vietnam has already been gaining as wages have been rising in China," says Mary Lovely at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a US-based think tank.

But there are also indications that investment has accelerated since the imposition of US sanctions on China last year.

In the first four months of 2019, Chinese investment into Vietnam has already reached about 65% of the total for 2018.

So there's certainly been an upsurge in Chinese investment, but how much of this is to do with tariffs?

And while the growth of industry is a long-term trend, experts say there's growing evidence that an increasingly stringent US tariff regime on Chinese goods is driving further investment into Vietnam.

"Many companies were investing in production outside of China, particularly in South East Asia, before the current trade conflict", according to corporate law firm, Baker & McKenzie, based in Hong Kong, but "the recent trade friction has simply accelerated this evolution."

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« Last Edit: July 21, 2019, 02:56:04 PM by adroth »

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Re: US-China trade war: Moving to Vietnam to avoid sanctions
« Reply #1 on: July 21, 2019, 03:23:42 PM »
Chinese manufacturers returning home from ‘inefficient’ Vietnam despite US trade war tariffs
Rising costs of labour and land in Southeast Asian nation, as well as inability to find ‘efficient’ workers, forcing some firms to reconsider fleeing Donald Trump’s tariffs
He Huifeng
   
Published: 7:45pm, 12 Jul, 2019

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3018403/chinese-manufacturers-returning-home-inefficient-vietnam

As the US trade war hastens the surge of factories moving out of China and into Vietnam, some Chinese manufacturers are urging their peers to think twice before relocating, with one footwear factory owner having abandoned a 5 million yuan (US$728,000) factory in the Southeast Asian country after just one year.

Zhou Ping has run a footwear factory in Dongguan, a city in China’s manufacturing heartland of Guangdong, since the early-2000s. But in May 2017, Zhou and another factory owner took a two-year contract on a 1,200 square metre (12,916 sq ft) facility in Binh Duong province, just north of Ho Chi Minh City, with the intention of producing accessories for a US fashion brand.

“We thought it a very good idea at the time because, on the surface, Vietnam’s factory buildings and labour were much cheaper than Dongguan, and we saw more and more European and American customers placing orders in Vietnam. A large number of upstream factories had shifted there, so we set up four production lines and hired 110 local workers. At that time, there was no trade war, and [the term] ‘made in Vietnam’ was still far from being hot,” he said.
In October 2018, however, Zhou cut his losses in Vietnam due to rising costs and “cultural issues”.

“The gap in worker efficiency between China and Vietnam is the biggest problem,” Zhou said. “Vietnamese workers do not work overtime at all and most of them are not skilled, resulting in low yield rates and frequently delayed delivery times. I think it takes a great deal of time and expense to train skilled workers in Vietnam. Chinese [small businesses] of our kind can’t afford this cost, both in terms of time and money.”

Zhou said he could also see how the increased demand for manufacturing space in Vietnam will cause the cost of land and labour to soar. His partner maintained the factory, but is now trying to shut it down, cutting staff from 110 to 50. Wages, Zhou said, have risen from 1,260 yuan (US$183) per month when the venture started to about 2,000 yuan (US$291).

Another Dongguan shoemaker, John Wang, invested 7 million yuan (US$1 million) in a Vietnamese facility in 2015, including purchasing land and factories in his Hanoi business partners’ names. Two years later, he stopped production and rented the factory to new arrivals.

Wang said he knows of six other footwear makers in Dongguan who have made the switch to Vietnam only to realise that it is not what they had expected, and who are now looking “to abandon the play”. A number of furniture and clothing factories also have similar experiences across the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta, two main manufacturing bases in China, according to local manufacturers and export traders.

It is a big headache because foreigners actually cannot buy and own land the land. I paid and invested in land, but it belongs to my Vietnamese friend. It is a common and growing risk for small Chinese manufacturers

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But the manufacturers complain that as well as not having China’s famed production capacity and labour efficiency, in Vietnam, they cannot safeguard their asset investments and have to put up with increasingly strict environmental and social security requirements – the same complaints that many foreign businesses have about manufacturing in China.
“Ho Chi Minh City has now started seeing a serious labour shortage. This proves that my decision to quit was correct,” Zhou added.

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Companies are now having to look to the more remote north of Vietnam for their second and third factories, seeking cheaper land and labour. In the south, it is now difficult to launch a single 1,000-person factory, according to Gao Jian, whose Vnocean Business Consulting Service have helped many Chinese enterprises move to more than 50 industrial estates in Vietnam.

Guangdong-based companies who have yet to face tariffs from the United States, but who are likely to do so in the future, are paying attention to the saturation in Vietnam.

After Chinese President Xi Jinping’s meeting with US counterpart Donald Trump in Osaka at the end of June, the US postponed plans to roll-out tariffs of up to 25 per cent on most of the remaining Chinese imports not yet subject to levies, valued at US$300 billion.

We feel that the situation is very serious, and everyone is looking for a way to find a place to move
Unnamed senior executive

Many electronics goods, such as smart devices and smartphones, are included on the US$300 billion of Chinese goods. The “truce” has bought these companies some time, but one Guangzhou-based exporter of light-emitting diodes – who wished not to be named – is under no illusions that the tariffs will not stay away forever.

“Now we feel that the situation is very serious, and everyone is looking for a way to find a place to move,” said the senior executive. “We are planning to move half of our production capacity, or about US$50 million of sales volume yearly, in the near future.”

He added that it is “certain that manufacturing [investment] in Vietnam will continue to increase rapidly” and we are also looking at alternative destinations, such as a Chinese-owned industrial parks in southern Thailand, Bangladesh and Myanmar, although none of these locations offer a perfect solution for manufacturing.

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