What would happen if China collapses?

[adroth]

What would happen if China collapses?




=====

Everyone warns of China’s rise. But its decline could be even worse.
“It’s frightening to think about,” a prominent scholar said.
By Alex Ward@AlexWardVoxalex.ward@vox.com  Dec 12, 2018, 2:00pm EST

https://www.vox.com/world/2018/12/12/18137363/china-rise-decline-usa-xi-trump?fbclid=IwAR0XXIj1bCW7PdZb7evLDM7H9_p31heOeExKsUS2yLzZofNJiutLeu2Tspc

TOKYO — Most Western predictions about the future of China’s rise are ominous, ranging from theories about how the country will perfect an authoritarian society to how it will serve as a model for a less free future.

But while reporting in Japan on Wednesday, I heard the most troubling prediction about China yet — and it was actually about the country’s decline.

“If the central government runs out of money, then they’re in trouble,” Akio Takahara, one of Japan’s leading scholars on China, told US-based reporters. “If you talk to the Chinese people, they’ll tell you that this [system of government] cannot last forever. So someday there will be a big change, but they don’t know when, they don’t know how, or what the process will be,” Takahara said.

And, he added, it won’t necessarily be peaceful.

There are two worrying things packed into that analysis, so let’s take each in turn.

First, on the surface it seems impossible that China — the world’s second-strongest economy — would run out of cash any time soon. But there are signs that China is undergoing a significant slowdown, partially because of President Donald Trump’s trade war.

< Edited >

[adroth]

If the PH has Mindanao, CN has Xinjiang province. Collapse will certainly mean and end to suppression.

Administrator's note: See also:

New evidence emerges of China forcing Muslims into ‘reeducation’ camps

China Expels Nine Uyghur Children From Soccer Talent Program

======


The thorn in China's side

From: http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/mapsonline/base-maps/xinjiang-autonomous-region



Why is there tension between China and the Uighurs?
26 September 2014

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-26414014

The Xinjiang autonomous region in China's far west has had a long history of discord between the authorities and the indigenous ethnic Uighur population. The BBC sets out why.

Who lives in Xinjiang?

The ethnic Uighur population used to be the majority in China's Xinjiang region

The largest of China's administrative regions, Xinjiang borders eight countries - Mongolia, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India - and until recently its population was mostly Uighur.

Most Uighurs are Muslim and Islam is an important part of their life and identity. Their language is related to Turkish, and they regard themselves as culturally and ethnically close to Central Asian nations.

The region's economy has largely revolved around agriculture and trade, with towns such as Kashgar thriving as hubs along the famous Silk Road.

But development has brought new residents. In the 2000 census, Han Chinese made up 40% of the population, as well as large numbers of troops stationed in the region and unknown numbers of unregistered migrants.

< Edited >

An East Turkestan state was briefly declared in 1949, but independence was short-lived - later that year Xinjiang officially became part of Communist China.

In the 1990s, open support for separatist groups increased after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the emergence of independent Muslim states in Central Asia.

However, Beijing suppressed demonstrations and activists went underground.

[horge]

Decline is not collapse.

China declining would be a good thing for us, if we can "industrialize in order to capitalize".
I think I'd throw a party at end of every fiscal year that China's economy shrinks >0.5%
More than 1%, I throw in free hookers (trannies, if that's what some party guests want).

As for mainland Uighur expansion.... we-ellll...
Metro Manila's own population could be 54% Muslim in twenty years.
That just means more party-guest bachelors who could marry up to four tranny hookers each.