Author Topic: Thought exercise: OFW repatriation from "Skrewedupistan"  (Read 10429 times)

adroth

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Re: Thought exercise: OFW repatriation from "Skrewedupistan"
« Reply #15 on: October 19, 2016, 02:45:30 PM »
Pretty much everyone appreciates the dramatic improvement in lift capability that the AFP has experienced in the past 5 years.

Once the PAF could only call upon Herc #4704 as its sole airlift asset. Today, we have squardon



One of the justifications for the SSV was OFW repatriation capability. Therefore it only made sense for the two Tarlac class SSVs to play a role in this scenario.



Two SSVs sailing into harms way means there was a distinct possibility that the people's tax money could turned into four-billion-peso artificial reeves. So it would make sense to send our only other trans-oceanic combat vessels along as escorts



The photo of WHEC's on exercises with the USN presents a useful segue to an important consideration. With the coast of the fictitious country teeming with Anti-Ship Missiles, and with the PN being completely devoid missile defense capability, would it not make sense to invoke the MDT to leverage American air defense capability?

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Quite a number have pointed out the distance of the destination and the need for refuelling stops. But couldn't the relatively empty cargo spaces of the two SSVs not be used to store fuel for the flotilla, at least for the inbound route?

Could we not leverage the BRP Caliraya to permit, at the very least, direct transit one way to Skrewdupistan, with the port stops taking place on the return trip? The return trip need not even be entirely with OFWs embarked.



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One aspect of the SSVs that hasn't been discussed is the fact that while the civiian RO-RO vessels that we could charter would be restricted to the ports in the two coastal cities, the LCUs of the SSVs could pick up OFWs from pretty much anywhere on the coast. Giving the flotilla great operational flexibility.
« Last Edit: October 19, 2016, 03:48:59 PM by adroth »

dr demented

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Re: Thought exercise: OFW repatriation from "Skrewedupistan"
« Reply #16 on: October 19, 2016, 09:26:14 PM »
The photo of WHEC's on exercises with the USN presents a useful segue to an important consideration. With the coast of the fictitious country teeming with Anti-Ship Missiles, and with the PN being completely devoid missile defense capability, would it not make sense to invoke the MDT to leverage American air defense capability?

Questions that I would ask with regards to this:
1.  Does the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty cover Philippine ships and aircraft operating outside of the area for which the treaty was originally intended, which is in the Pacific?
2.  What exactly does "leveraging" mean?  Would that mean invoking the treaty?  Or would that mean using the treaty to beat the Americans over the head with it?
3.  Given the urgency of the mission, if such American air defense capabilities could be acquired by leveraging the MDT, could such equipment be installed in time to be of use in such an evacuation operation?
4.  Does leveraging American air defense capability mean something other than installation of equipment........perhaps extending as far as maybe American air cover?
5.  Could such leveraging with the Americans cause the pro-Russian/Chinese faction of the civil war to start targeting Philippine ships, aircraft, personnel, and civilians?

Quite a number have pointed out the distance of the destination and the need for refuelling stops. But couldn't the relatively empty cargo spaces of the two SSVs not be used to store fuel for the flotilla, at least for the inbound route?

Could we not leverage the BRP Caliraya to permit, at the very least, direct transit one way to Skrewdupistan, with the port stops taking place on the return trip? The return trip need not even be entirely with OFWs embarked.

Good point........I had not thought of using the two SSVs to carry fuel.

As for the BRP Caliraya.........the consideration there is can the ship keep up with the rest of the fleet?  I can't seem to find any information out there that tells what the ship's best speed is.  The plan that I put forth assumed a fleet speed of about 15 to 16 knots, given that's the best possible speed of the two SSVs (which in and of itself might burn more fuel than usual).  If the fleet is operating at that speed, it gets to the evacuation zone in about 3 weeks.
Adding a tanker to that fleet that might be operating at less than 15 knots will slow the rest of the fleet down.

As it is, there's a 3 week window before the fleet arrives, where the evacuees are vulnerable, considering that the coastal cities have no airport.  And transporting them to the interior city maybe risky business, since the roads from the coast to the interior may not be secure, and it would overwhelm already meager air transport assets.

Consideration could be given to send the tanker escorted by a 3rd GDP class frigate (refer to the reserve task force 2 in my original reply) to follow on later and be available for UNREP operations as needed.
« Last Edit: October 19, 2016, 09:50:05 PM by dr demented »

adroth

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Re: Thought exercise: OFW repatriation from "Skrewedupistan"
« Reply #17 on: October 20, 2016, 05:10:47 AM »


The photo of WHEC's on exercises with the USN presents a useful segue to an important consideration. With the coast of the fictitious country teeming with Anti-Ship Missiles, and with the PN being completely devoid missile defense capability, would it not make sense to invoke the MDT to leverage American air defense capability?



Questions that I would ask with regards to this:

1.  Does the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty cover Philippine ships and aircraft operating outside of the area for which the treaty was originally intended, which is in the Pacific?

2.  What exactly does "leveraging" mean?  Would that mean invoking the treaty?  Or would that mean using the treaty to beat the Americans over the head with it?

3.  Given the urgency of the mission, if such American air defense capabilities could be acquired by leveraging the MDT, could such equipment be installed in time to be of use in such an evacuation operation?

4.  Does leveraging American air defense capability mean something other than installation of equipment........perhaps extending as far as maybe American air cover?


"Leveraging" as in getting US escorts and air defense while at sea and overwatch while conducting flight operations.

Similar arrangements could, presumably be arranged with Chinese and Russian forces, but unless military exercises with these two powers becomes part of the norm, the US remains the world power with which our troops are most accustomed to work with . . . and are already accustomed to work with us. So they would be the logical starting point.

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5.  Could such leveraging with the Americans cause the pro-Russian/Chinese faction of the civil war to start targeting Philippine ships, aircraft, personnel, and civilians?

Good point. 

The friendly forces we'd need to tap for a specific area of operations would have to also be friendly with the local faction. Ergo, US for US-friendly areas, and China and Russia for the other side.

Assuming . . . that Filipinos can be found territories held by both sides . . . the beauty of having both Tarlac class boats there is that these could actually be dedicated to one side. In such an arrangement Forward Air Controllers / Liaison Officers from the US could be on one to coordinate operations, and the Chinese/Russian on the other SSV.

However, if we find that all Filipinos are in the territory of only one faction, then the calculus above goes out the window and into the sewer. We better hope that they'd be in the US side because we have no interoperability experience with the allies of the other side.

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As for the BRP Caliraya.........the consideration there is can the ship keep up with the rest of the fleet?  I can't seem to find any information out there that tells what the ship's best speed is.  The plan that I put forth assumed a fleet speed of about 15 to 16 knots, given that's the best possible speed of the two SSVs (which in and of itself might burn more fuel than usual).  If the fleet is operating at that speed, it gets to the evacuation zone in about 3 weeks.

Adding a tanker to that fleet that might be operating at less than 15 knots will slow the rest of the fleet down.

Another good point. No data on the Caliraya as of posting. The delay imposed by its speed would also need to be weighed against the delays caused by pulling into port because the tanker was not part of the mix.

But if the thing chugs along at 5 knots . . . would it even be safe to send it on such a long voyage?

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As it is, there's a 3 week window before the fleet arrives, where the evacuees are vulnerable, considering that the coastal cities have no airport.  And transporting them to the interior city maybe risky business, since the roads from the coast to the interior may not be secure, and it would overwhelm already meager air transport assets.

True. Arguably a lot of folks will simply have to shelter in-place and then use the method that works for them. As Mamiyapis points out, a proactive PH embassy would have called for relief just as the situation degraded. However, in this scenario . . . local PH officials vacillated.

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Consideration could be given to send the tanker escorted by a 3rd GDP class frigate (refer to the reserve task force 2 in my original reply) to follow on later and be available for UNREP operations as needed.

Whew, talking about having all our strategic assets out of the country.

Shrike

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Re: Thought exercise: OFW repatriation from "Skrewedupistan"
« Reply #18 on: December 19, 2016, 10:07:27 PM »
Do the OFWs have to evacuated directly to the Philippines?  Wouldn't it be easier to airlift the evacuees to a nearby friendly, third-party country willing to host the evacuees for a short period of time until their eventual repatriation to the Philippines?  We can then forward base our airlift assets in that third-party country and the LPDs can then evacuate them from there.  This should be a cheaper and safer option as we would not then be sending the LPDs into an active combat zone.  Off-loading the helicopters should also create extra space for more evacuees.

adroth

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Re: Thought exercise: OFW repatriation from "Skrewedupistan"
« Reply #19 on: December 20, 2016, 07:33:45 AM »
Do the OFWs have to evacuated directly to the Philippines?  Wouldn't it be easier to airlift the evacuees to a nearby friendly, third-party country willing to host the evacuees for a short period of time until their eventual repatriation to the Philippines?  We can then forward base our airlift assets in that third-party country and the LPDs can then evacuate them from there.  This should be a cheaper and safer option as we would not then be sending the LPDs into an active combat zone.  Off-loading the helicopters should also create extra space for more evacuees.

Perfectly valid option Shrike. Other folks have actually brought that up as well. If there were alternative methods of getting OFWs to a save zone, and then simply evacuating them from there, then that would be the way to go.

But what if there wasn't . . . and we had to go in on our own.

Arguably the latter scenario is what would provide the "fun factor" for this discussion. :-)

wild_feather08

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Re: Thought exercise: OFW repatriation from "Skrewedupistan"
« Reply #20 on: December 20, 2016, 10:36:56 AM »
..I might missed to read, but just curious what types of ground vehicles we can deploy for evacuation and security?. 
Considering the climate and terrain of the country...

Shrike

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Re: Thought exercise: OFW repatriation from "Skrewedupistan"
« Reply #21 on: December 21, 2016, 05:47:59 PM »
Air distance is about 8000 kilometers by air or 5000 nautical miles by sea.

Direct flight by Hercules (on an empty cargo bay) would take 15 hours, a chartered jet aircraft would take 10 hours.  Given the necessity of a refueling stop, crew rest requirements, etc., we are only looking at a sortie rate of one every 36-48 hours.  Given the number of evacuees (unless we can mobilize a lot of air assets and the availability of a prepared airfield), the majority would have to be evacuated by sea.  However, sea evacuation would take a lot of time - 5000 nautical miles at 15 knots is 14 days.

Assuming that the embassy staff has been able to adequately prepare for a bug-in for 7500 people for 14 days, the best bug-in place would be at a prepared airfield to ensure evacuation of critical cases, women and children by air.  Initial flight of organic assets would be a battalion combat team to provide airfield security.  Lets call this the airborne element.  A battalion combat team may not seem like much but able bodied men amongst the evacuees (preferably those who had previous served in the Armed Forces or at least paid attention during ROTC training) can be seconded and armed.  Lets call this the militia element.  All other able bodied men can be put to work digging trenches, preparing OPs, etc.  Airborne element commander must put everyone to work otherwise the idle will merely complain.  If the embassy was not able to provision adequately (which would probably be the case), incoming flights from the Philippines would have to bring water purifying equipment, medicines, food, ammunition and weapons.  If a prepared airfield is not available, then only organic airlift assets could be used, significant reducing incoming loads and air evacuation.

By the 14th day on arrival of the evacuation fleet, the embarked battalion combat team (lets call this the marine element) would have to link up with the airborne and militia elements and escort the evacuees to a prepared port if available.  If unavailable, evacuation from the beach is possible using LCUs, albeit at a much slower rate.

All of this presupposes a relatively stable evacuation environment (no ground attacks on the evacuation center and airfield, incoming and outgoing flights are unimpeded by anti aircraft fire).  If attacks are happening, or if anti-aircraft fire is encountered, the perimeter must be enlarged to prevent this.  Militia element would have to be enlarged and man the perimeter, airborne element would be used as a fire-brigade to reinforce threatened sectors (militia to fix enemy, airborne to maneuver).  Upon arrival of marine element, port are has to be secured and fight its way inland (preferably avoiding built-up areas) to link up with the evacuees and airfield defenders.  They must then fight their way out (Hungnam style) and get aboard the evacuation fleet.  As a symbol of mission success, airborne element commander should be the last one out (Boris Gromov style).  No one gets left behind.

Upon arrival in the Philippines, medals and round of drinks all around as tribute to the fallen.

reneille

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Re: Thought exercise: OFW repatriation from "Skrewedupistan"
« Reply #22 on: December 26, 2016, 12:35:11 AM »
My 2 cents are

Why be limited to tapping commercial, civilian RoRo vessels for naval evac?

If we can tap on Philippine Airlines 747 aircraft to augment the C-130's, We could potentially evac more people, faster.
But it could be hard on logistics since 747's are damn large, fuel hungry beasts that require relatively pristine facilities to operate efficiently.

adroth

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Re: Thought exercise: OFW repatriation from "Skrewedupistan"
« Reply #23 on: January 29, 2020, 02:24:43 AM »
Well .  . whadya know

Middle East-bound PH Navy ships on its historical mark in Sri Lanka

https://www.facebook.com/BRPDavaodelSurLD602Official/posts/2769867669767853

Port of Colombo, Sri Lanka – The Philippine Navy (PN) vessels, BRP Ramon Alcaraz (PS16) and BRP Davao Del Sur (LD602) made its first historical mark as it made its stop here, at the East Container Terminal in The Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka, January 26, Sunday noontime.

Read more: https://navy.mil.ph/pn_web_news.php?news_id=2062

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dr demented

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Re: Thought exercise: OFW repatriation from "Skrewedupistan"
« Reply #24 on: February 07, 2020, 08:48:45 AM »
Let's see........departed the Philippines on January 15, arrived in Oman on February 6.  22 days.  Pretty close to our prediction of 3 weeks.  And that included 3 days refueling in Sri Lanka.

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1093073

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PH naval contingent for Mideast evacuation now in Oman

By Priam Nepomuceno February 6, 2020, 10:56 am

MANILA -- The Philippine Navy (PN) on Thursday said the strategic sealift vessel BRP Davao Del Sur (LD-602) and offshore patrol ship BRP Ramon Alcaraz (PS-16), which are tasked to evacuate Filipino overseas workers in the Middle East, finally arrived and docked off Muscat, Oman Wednesday afternoon.

Lt. Commander Maria Christina Roxas, PN public affairs office chief, said the two ships carrying the contingent of Naval Task Force (NTF) 82 safely arrived at the Sultan Qaboos Port in Muscat.

Mission head Marine Col. Noel Beleran, along with the commanding officers of the two PN ships, immediately made a courtesy call on Philippine Ambassador to Oman Narciso Castañeda.

Roxas said the two ships will serve as a sea-based platform for the government to process and facilitate the repatriation of displaced OFWs.

"Specifics and other details about the repatriation are expected to be finalized after the scheduled joint AFP-PNP command conference to be presided by the Commander-In-Chief, President Rodrigo Roa Duterte in Malacañang on which NTF 82 will take part via video teleconferencing together with Ambassador Castañeda," she said.

Beleran said the PN contingent is "all safe and sound" upon arriving in Oman.

The contingent left Pier 13, Manila South Harbor last January 13 and made refueling and reprovisioning stop in Sri Lanka last week before heading for Oman.

"The troops are very happy and in high spirits, since this event serves as another milestone for our Navy that we can already transcend across the deep waters of the Indian Ocean or the Arabian Sea," he added.

Beleran said the sailors and marines "are ready to assist and support the government's effort in repatriating our unsung heroes, the OFWs in this Middle East conflict".

Roxas added that the safe arrival of the PN contingent in Oman signified the tangible means of the government's effort to ensure that OFWs will be safely repatriated to the Philippines, aside from showcasing the preparedness of Filipino navy ships in overseas deployment. (PNA)