US dangles F-16 fighters, attack helicopters to PH

[mamiyapis]

US dangles F-16 fighters, attack helicopters to PH

http://globalnation.inquirer.net/169251/us-dangles-f-16-fighters-attack-helicopters-ph

In light of a possible procurement of Russian submarines, the United States is now offering the Philippines its Lockheed Martin F-16 multi-role fighters and attack helicopters.

President Rodrigo Duterte on Thursday disclosed this as he read a letter signed by three Cabinet secretaries of the United States government seeking a meeting with him to discuss the Philippine military’s modernization program.

The letter was read during the 12th-anniversary rites of the Eastern Mindanao Command (Eastmincom) in Davao City.

“We know, however, that our nations can do even more to integrate our economic and security concerns,” read the letter sent by US Ambassador Sung Kim, as quoted by Duterte...

[horge]

This is, what? The sixth time we've been 'offered' F-16?   
If it's anything like the last four offers, I fear it will all come to the same end result, and not
because of the quality of the materiel in play. If we want something, we have to pay to
acquire and sustain. If we don't want to pay (even soft loans require repayment), nothing
will come of it.

Attack rotary-wing has been on the table for DECADES, and have AFAICT revolved around
Cobras. State Department would have fewer qualms signing off on the sale of a platform
with very limited regional-projection, but same salsa again: if we want something, we have
to pay to acquire and sustain. If we don't want to pay (even soft loans require repayment),
nothing will come of it.

(Re)publicizing what the PH can avail of (if it does its part as a credible buyer-operator, not
least of which is putting up the cash to acquire, and the infrastructure/logistics to sustain)
is a smart way to address the "sabong" (for the non-Tagalog speakers, 'cockfight') style of
bargaining employed by PH: it'll play on "the historic bond between PH and US", and give
PH.gov something to show for its bargaining... but may not actually be putting anything
really new on the table.

I hope there IS something new on the table (IOW, more generous financing terms, which
IMO is what Pres. Duterte has and/or should have been playing for all along), but you will
have to color me jaded, m...

because practical poverty and prideful sense of entitlement are the colors of the season
for the majority of those who post online as interested Filipinos, as is likely to reflect
something in the larger offline population as well, and politics is playing to the crowd.

Cheers,
h.



 

[adroth]

This is, what? The sixth time we've been 'offered' F-16?   

There was Marcos' export-version thumb down.

The most recent was during PNoy's time. A half-arsed request met with a half-arsed response. Back then, we could barely keep one C-130 flying.

Inquirer.net -  December 10, 2011

Mr. Aquino, a member of the Philippine Air Force (PAF) reserve force, made the remarks in his speech before officers and personnel during opening ceremonies for the PAF Invitational Shootfest and firing range blessing at Villamor Airbase on Saturday.

“We went to Bali, Indonesia, recently and as we were leaving for the Philippines, we saw at their airport three F-16s parked and they would be given two squadrons more by our American friends,” Mr. Aquino said in an impromptu speech.

“I said, this looks rather equitible. Two squadrons for them, one ship for us,” he added in jest.

The President said he would remind Obama of the strategic partnership between the Philippines and the United States.

If it's anything like the last four offers, I fear it will all come to the same end result, and not
because of the quality of the materiel in play. If we want something, we have to pay to
acquire and sustain. If we don't want to pay (even soft loans require repayment), nothing
will come of it.


(Re)publicizing what the PH can avail of (if it does its part as a credible buyer-operator, not
least of which is putting up the cash to acquire, and the infrastructure/logistics to sustain)
is a smart way to address the "sabong" (for the non-Tagalog speakers, 'cockfight') style of
bargaining employed by PH: it'll play on "the historic bond between PH and US", and give
PH.gov something to show for its bargaining... but may not actually be putting anything
really new on the table.

I hope there IS something new on the table (IOW, more generous financing terms, which
IMO is what Pres. Duterte has and/or should have been playing for all along), but you will
have to color me jaded, m...

How well we take care of our FA-50s will go a long way to demonstrating our readiness to operate more complicated aircraft.

JUSMAG is reportedly carefully studying how we use those birds. Only time will tell.

[Invictus]

Duterte to accept US offers for AFP if done ‘in good faith’

President Duterte is still not keen on accepting the offer made by the United States for the modernization of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) unless he is sure that the act is done in good faith.

Duterte made the statement after he revealed that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross, and Secretary of Defense James Mattis expressed wanting to meet him.

The President then argued that if ever he decides to buy any of the items, there is no assurance that they will really arrive to the country, or if they really are new ones and not just refurbished.

“I would lime to remind America–all of them. How sure na makuha ko ‘yung binili ko (that I will get what I bought)?” Duterte asked.

[redcomet_m]

i think, if it would help, Gen. Kintanar or maybe the spokesperson of PAF should make a press tidbit that he welcomes the offer by their US counterpart, to make public the organization's appreciation of the offer plus give a small reminder how it will help with PAFs plans.

[horge]

This is, what? The sixth time we've been 'offered' F-16?   

There was Marcos' export-version thumb down.

Yes, the Marcos-era offer was AFAIK first.

There was also the offer from Reagan communicated  by visiting Secy of State George Schultz
in 1986, of an alleged two squadrons of unspecified Falcons, but which went south when, IIRC
Cory Aquino snubbed a visiting Secy of Defense Caspar Weinberger, in turn due to some other
diplomatic fracas.

Then there were the embargoed Peace Gate FMS Falcons, which weren't delivered to Pakistan
due its nuclear ambitions, and were boneyarded in 1995, just a year after manufacture. These
were offered to Indonesia, which then backed out, and to the Philippines 1995-1997. Initial
offer was for 11 birds, but changed over time when Taiwan turned down their allotment of 17
of the same birds, for being less advanced (Block 15 OCU) than the birds Taiwan was already
operating. In any case, the Philippines dithered because (given the Asian Economic Miracle)
some PH legislators rejected second-hands and demanded BRAND-NEW aircraft, kasi nga daw
"because we deserve better". Lol, the Asian Economic Crisis hit in 1997.

The cry for BRAND-NEW aircraft nevertheless produced an exploratory proposal for such, and
however short-lived, the "brand new" birds would AFAICT have still been the same boneyarded
Falcons, albeit with SLEP and upgrades to 50/52 standard, but, cue the Asian Economic Crisis.

Then there was that PH-US "2+2" meeting which produced what can only have been an interim
solution: a couple of (lol) boneyard Falcons for us to LEARN how to operate and sustain the
sort... but again, pride and harrumhping  ruled the day.

And then there's this latest offer.
IMO, EDA Falcons --or even new-order Vipers-- are technically ALWAYS available. MNNA tayo.
They are technically ALWAYS on offer... but we still have to evidence a serious intent to
acquire, operate and sustain in a responsible manner. Balik an naman tayo sa 'maturity'.

That last thing aside, shit's ALWAYS on offer. All that really changes is the offer to finance.
JMHO, YMMV, TANSTAAFL, etc.

Duterte to

accept US offers for AFP if done ‘in good faith’

President Duterte is still not keen on accepting the offer made by the United States for the
modernization of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) unless he is sure that the act is done in good faith.
Duterte made the statement after he revealed that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross,
and Secretary of Defense James Mattis expressed wanting to meet him.

The President then argued that if ever he decides to buy any of the items, there is no assurance that they will really
arrive to the country, or if they really are new ones and not just refurbished.

“I would lime to remind America–all of them. How sure na makuha ko ‘yung binili ko (that I will get what I bought)?”
Duterte asked.

While I may disagree with his habitual style of expression...
President Duterte is right (as a buyer's rep) to be concerned about delivery. There is  enough
basis on the ground for an embargo to deny us the birds, just like what happened to Pakistan.

However, Pakistan was a real buyer with real money, and had every right to voice concerns.
The Philippines seems more in the mode of demanding a triple discount on factory-overruns,
as well as a loan to pay the triple-discounted price, and still expecting full warranties and
VIP customer service, lol

[Invictus]

Precondition? 

Duterte on meeting US officials: Return Balangiga bells first

In a speech in Panacan, Davao Thursday night, Duterte said that before anything else, the United States should first return the Balangiga bells its soldiers took more than a century ago. “Kung hindi nila isauli ‘yang Balangiga bells, wala tayong pag-usapan (If they won’t return the Balangiga bells, then there’s nothing to talk about). I will not [talk to them],” Duterte said.

[mamiyapis]

Precondition? 

Duterte on meeting US officials: Return Balangiga bells first

In a speech in Panacan, Davao Thursday night, Duterte said that before anything else, the United States should first return the Balangiga bells its soldiers took more than a century ago. “Kung hindi nila isauli ‘yang Balangiga bells, wala tayong pag-usapan (If they won’t return the Balangiga bells, then there’s nothing to talk about). I will not [talk to them],” Duterte said.

IF this is the precondition, then it has already been met... and means there is a chance the meeting is happening... and that Duterte actually already has made up his mind. Hopefully for the betterment of the PAF.

[mamiyapis]

And then there's this latest offer.
IMO, EDA Falcons --or even new-order Vipers-- are technically ALWAYS available. MNNA tayo.
They are technically ALWAYS on offer... but we still have to evidence a serious intent to
acquire, operate and sustain in a responsible manner. Balik an naman tayo sa 'maturity'.

That last thing aside, shit's ALWAYS on offer. All that really changes is the offer to finance.
JMHO, YMMV, TANSTAAFL, etc.

......

However, Pakistan was a real buyer with real money, and had every right to voice concerns.
The Philippines seems more in the mode of demanding a triple discount on factory-overruns,
as well as a loan to pay the triple-discounted price, and still expecting full warranties and
VIP customer service, lol

As far as I understand, the funding for the MRF has actually been signed and is simply waiting for DBM(lol) to release funding.
I have a feeling this time, the money is actually there to buy what's needed... just needs the money to be released so that
the relevant agencies can do their thing.

If I heard correctly, the budget is around $2.1-2.0 billion @ P54-55 peg for the exchange rate?

[Buster1123]

If I heard correctly, the budget is around $2.1-2.0 billion @ P54-55 peg for the exchange rate?

seems enough to buy 24 - JAS39C/D or 12 - Gripen NG

[tagalacion]

No argument the F-16 Block 70 is far superior to the JAS39CD. 

However, the PAF (or at least some inside it) is already giving some broad hints about what they really want:

a) Sustainability over 'raw' combat capability:
https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2018/08/26/1845880/f16-jets-are-expensive-maintain

b) 2 Erieye AEWC with 12 MRFs, i.e. 2 birds; 1 stone (if SAAB's offer is similar to the Thai deal):
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/news/national/30304127

c1) More than 12 JAS39CDs + 2 Erieyes (if Mr Mamiyapis' budget figure is correct):

OR

c2) Attractive AAM + ASM munitions options:

MBDA Meteor AAM:
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/meteor-introduction-transforms-swedish-air-defence-425537/

RBS 15 ASHM:
https://www.jetthrustimages.com/blog/2018/1/thai-gripens-rbs15-missile-t50th-deliveries


Just my two cents' worth...

[horge]

No argument the F-16 Block 70 is far superior to the JAS39CD. 

Even 50/52 outmatches 39C/D, and therein may be one of the real tricks to keeping the 39's
on-paper sustainment costs low: actual combat capability can be correlated to TOW. 39C/D's
claimed DCPFH alone is astonishingly low, but is not quite so low for E/F (aka NG), yes?

As Saab made the 39 more and more capable, to match rival platforms (and more importantly,
potential-operators' NEEDS), the 39's weight increased generationally, and inevitably bloated
its DCPFH. If the 39 were to ever truly match Viper for capability, I suspect that the daylight
between the two platforms' opcosts would vanish, or that Viper might even come out costing
less, PFH.

The real question is whether there's enough capability daylight between FA-50PH and 39, to
justify the colossal cost of another combat jet logistical tail. IOW, if it's going to really hurt in
the nuts, no matter which MRF is selected, why not get the MRF that more substantially out-
performs the FA-50PH?

Flip it around: if Viper seems too much capability and cost (lol), and Gripen seems not enough
improvement over FA-50PH for its cost, then is it not an indication that FA-50PH actually hits
closest to a sweet-spot intersection of capability we actually need and cost we can afford? 

         



Yes, I'm trolling against my own preferences... but I'm trolling for a NEEDS-based discussion.

[Mr. S]

I think both SAAB's own estimates and claims from the recent Slovakian purchase re: op costs for Gripen and F-16 should be taken with a grain of salt. The only Air Force that currently operates both types seems to only be sending their Gripens to international exercises. Granted their F-16s are a bit long in the tooth.

As an aside, is the Block 70 in service with any air forces currently? Bahrain and Slovakia haven't received theirs. Does the USAF operate anything newer than Block 52?

Who's to say that having a swarm of F/A-50s with some form of BVR and backed up by airborne radar platforms isn't the right way to go? Launch and land from a distance instead of trying to tangle with J-11s. 

[tagalacion]

Hi Sir H! 

I'm sure PAF is also aware of the yawning performance discrepancy between Gripen C/D and the F-16 (even the 'older' Block 50/52).  They might even be keenly aware that the 39C/D doesn't outperform the FA-50 by much, given they're basically using the same engine, i.e. RM12 is a derivative of the GE-F404.

I was just calling attention to how PAF's assertion on sustainability might be pointing to the JAS39C/D as their preference (or at least by some inside the PAF) anyway. 

It's possible the low CPFH really is that attractive to PAF which tells me they've already done some due diligence to confirm this with RTAF which has now been operating 39C/D's for the better part of the decade.

But is that really the only consideration?

Nobody here (least of all, me) is going to argue that a Viper will almost always beat a Gripen in a balls-to-the-wall, top gun type scenario; but isn't air combat a systems fight just like what was pinned in the old timawa thread?

The point is, perhaps the PAF was realistic enough to understand that the old school way of just trying to reach the 'merge' so we can shoot down bad guys using superb training and skills to squeeze the last ounce of performance from our fighter aircraft is ultimately a losing strategy for an air force like ours.

And if that's the context, then I can certainly see why getting 2 Erieyes in the bargain is such an attractive proposition for the PAF, not to mention the possibility of also getting superb standoff weapons like the Meteor and the RBS15.  After all, the ability to engage hostile aircraft and vessels without exposing itself to counter-fire is probably 'sexier' in PAF's eyes than just the raw 'performance' represented by the Viper.

Of course, the US can always match whatever Saab is offering in terms of AWACS and standoff (i.e. BVRAAM, ASM) weaponry.  What I doubt is whether their offer can fit the PAF's approved budget.

[mamiyapis]

Even 50/52 outmatches 39C/D, and therein may be one of the real tricks to keeping the 39's
on-paper sustainment costs low: actual combat capability can be correlated to TOW. 39C/D's
claimed DCPFH alone is astonishingly low, but is not quite so low for E/F (aka NG), yes?

As Saab made the 39 more and more capable, to match rival platforms (and more importantly,
potential-operators' NEEDS), the 39's weight increased generationally, and inevitably bloated
its DCPFH. If the 39 were to ever truly match Viper for capability, I suspect that the daylight
between the two platforms' opcosts would vanish, or that Viper might even come out costing
less, PFH.

The real question is whether there's enough capability daylight between FA-50PH and 39, to
justify the colossal cost of another combat jet logistical tail. IOW, if it's going to really hurt in
the nuts, no matter which MRF is selected, why not get the MRF that more substantially out-
performs the FA-50PH?

But there lies the rub... if the needs dictate we go with the sweet-spot solution and the PAF determined
that range... is it wrong to stick with that even if we know for a fact a different solution would bring us
better capability?

As for the lack of "daylight" between a putative 39 C/D and a 50, I offer a different argument for the
acquisition of the 39 as a weapons platform... why not use the 39s as a dedicated maritime strike or
anti-shipping platform? They have the necessary AAR/IFR capability the current crop of 50s lack. They
also bring the requisite sensor and payload capacity expected of a dedicated maritime strike platform.
They also bring a built-in capability in the RBS-15 missiles instead of having a missile system integrated
on whatever platform we own/buy(cause the Germans will never sell us the Taurus 350K2, Haesong air-
launched is also a long shot on any FA50s, and PDutz will never allow a Harpoon Block 2 integration to
happen... well, any RP.gov for that matter).

I prefer to think of it this way... the FA50s would act as our Mirages(lol), while the JAS-39s act as our
pissed-off, Exocet-slinging Super Etendards(lolol).   

Flip it around: if Viper seems too much capability and cost (lol), and Gripen seems not enough
improvement over FA-50PH for its cost, then is it not an indication that FA-50PH actually hits
closest to a sweet-spot intersection of capability we actually need and cost we can afford? 

         



Yes, I'm trolling against my own preferences... but I'm trolling for a NEEDS-based discussion.

h... you don't know how close you are to the sweet spot