Given the recent changes in US Philippines ties, do you see this as somewhat prescient?
I see this as something they would lift eventually, once they are satisfied that the Philippines is ready/becomes reliable or it acquires an alternative source.
The reason that I included a screen capture of post in the old Timawa SAA/LIFT munitions thread (from a search engine cache) was to show that it was made in November last year -- before Duterte.
This fits with the narrative that the Philippines is viewed as an ally, but an unreliable one. Remember how, under PNoy, we almost gave China an excuse to bring the PLA-N into the SCS/WPS picture when we deployed the PN, complete with NAVSOG, to Scarborough instead of the PCG? If that can happen with a non-missile-armed 45 year old ex-cutter can't do any real harm . . . imagine if we had teeth?
Somone doesn't want to be drawn into a shooting war because someone else fired something. Can't really blame them for worrying.
This where all the talk about the Missile Control Regime, in the old forum, was coming from. Not that we don't have missiles out of respect for the accords. But that it could be potentially used as an argument against us.
It's also why there was that post -- that had people wondering if I had lost it -- about indigenous development of long range kinetic capability.
The US is perfectly fine with helping us in weapons that can be used against insurgents. Territorial defense is new ground. This is another reason why PH-US relations have to mature.