Teddy Locsin: Letting the cat out of the bag re the SAA/LIFT Munitions project?

[adroth]

The SSA/LIFT munitions project was a separate effort to acquire the following items for the FA-50PH:

Air-to-Air Missiles (312 Pieces)
Air-to-Surface Missiles (125 Pieces)
20mm Ammo (93,600 Pieces)
Chaffs/IR Flares.

The projects for the ammo and flares are proceeding. The missile component, however, stalled. Problems made it to the press as early as November last year. Not long after the first two FA-50s arrived

http://www.interaksyon.com/article/120732/paf-readies-airbases-for-fa50-jets-munitions-to-wait-3-years

Upon delivery, the jets' munitions will still undergo another procurement process. It takes two to three years more before the jets can be completely armed, Defense secretary Voltaire Gazmin disclosed.

Nobody in-the-know would comment openly on the circumstances surrounding this issue. So those given the privilege of taps-on-the-shoulder were left to make cryptic comments.



At least . . . until this tweet by Teddy Boy Locsin, the incoming Philippine Ambassador to the UN. While the the wording could have been done better, since it doesn't highlight the separate nature of the FA-50 acquisition from its munitions . . .

. . . has the can FINALLY been let out of the bag??

https://twitter.com/teddyboylocsin/status/780248823855669248

[mamiyapis]

PDuterte has apparently confirmed this old shoulder tap:

https://facebook.com/notes/presidential-communications-government-of-the-philippines/speech-of-president-rodrigo-roa-duterte-during-his-visit-to-the-10th-infantry-di/1448553855174271?_rdr

"A ride against the two F-50s natin, if bigyan tayo pabilhan tayo ng mga missile. But the problem is, ayaw nila tayong bigyan. Kinuha natin ‘yan sa Korea. Correct, but that is American technology and you cannot but it without the consent of America."

[LionFlyer]

Given the recent changes in US Philippines ties, do you see this as somewhat prescient?

I see this as something they would lift eventually, once they are satisfied that the Philippines is ready/becomes reliable or it acquires an alternative source.

[miggye]

actually, Lionflyer, this is something that precedes the current administration by a long shot. chats i have had these past years with senior and flag officers show a distinct Anti-American sentiment running thru them. not once, but countless times have i heard grumbles and phrases like, "they show us all these nice goodies, but then tell us that we can't have that yet!" going around the officers i know. believe me, PDuterte is only a recent symptom of the building resentment.

according to some knowledgeable sources of mine, this is also the reason why the AFP seems to have tapped other countries as sources of military hardware. take a look at Horizon 1, only a pittance went to American firms when once upon a time, the AFP would have spent a major portion of the money on American goods.

[adroth]

Given the recent changes in US Philippines ties, do you see this as somewhat prescient?

I see this as something they would lift eventually, once they are satisfied that the Philippines is ready/becomes reliable or it acquires an alternative source.

The reason that I included a screen capture of   post in the old Timawa SAA/LIFT munitions thread (from a search engine cache) was to show that it was made in November last year -- before Duterte.

This fits with the narrative that the Philippines is viewed as an ally, but an unreliable one. Remember how, under PNoy, we almost gave China an excuse to bring the PLA-N into the SCS/WPS picture when we deployed the PN, complete with NAVSOG, to Scarborough instead of the PCG? If that can happen with a non-missile-armed 45 year old ex-cutter can't do any real harm . . . imagine if we had teeth?

Somone doesn't want to be drawn into a shooting war because someone else fired something. Can't really blame them for worrying.

This where all the talk about the Missile Control Regime, in the old forum, was coming from. Not that we don't have missiles out of respect for the accords. But that it could be potentially used as an argument against us.

It's also why there was that post -- that had people wondering if I had lost it -- about indigenous development of long range kinetic capability.

The US is perfectly fine with helping us in weapons that can be used against insurgents. Territorial defense is new ground. This is another reason why PH-US relations have to mature.

[gemini1]

So the old man wasn't kidding when he stated, those FA50s were just for show. Ok since uncle Sam is trying to restrict/block any missile sales for our birds, and D30 hinting getting arms from Russia or china. Why then is it that there seems to be no info from anybody with sources from the inside, about Israel providing the weapons? I remember there was a post on the old Timawa thread, that Israel was trying to offer the Python and some other munitions for the FA50?

[adroth]

So the old man wasn't kidding when he stated, those FA50s were just for show. Ok since uncle Sam is trying to restrict/block any missile sales for our birds, and D30 hinting getting arms from Russia or china. Why then is it that there seems to be no info from anybody with sources from the inside, about Israel providing the weapons? I remember there was a post on the old Timawa thread, that Israel was trying to offer the Python and some other munitions for the FA50?

On August 5, in a speech at Camp Lapu-Lapu in Cebu, Duterte reportedly mentioned that he was also in favor of buying weapons from Israel (see last paragraph here).

That being said, IIRC, Israeli weapons haven't been cleared for use with the FA-50 yet.

[12th BCT]

On August 5, in a speech at Camp Lapu-Lapu in Cebu, Duterte reportedly mentioned that he was also in favor of buying weapons from Israel (see last paragraph here).

That being said, IIRC, Israeli weapons haven't been cleared for use with the FA-50 yet.

That being said, how much influence would the US have over any putative Israeli Arms deal or to be specific, modifications to the FA-50PH?

[miggye]

It may be easier than we think: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-israel-usa-defence-idUSKCN11Q1VF

The Israeli defense companies will be scrambling for customers in order to survive. If ever, this actually will make our money more valuable as they try to stay above water.

[gemini1]

^ I dont know doc. Big ticket items like missiles and PGM are made by the big boys of the Israeli defense industries. And as mentioned in the link, one option was for those big firms to  open subsidiaries in the US. One problem here is that, the US may still persuade(?) these firms from selling us those PGM.
It was mentioned at Maxdefense though, that Rafael  offered proposals to the AFP last month, to better utilized the FA50s.
So if such proposals were offered. I would asume that Rafael is capable of making the integrations to clear their munitions for the FA50s. Assuming there's no objection with the US, would there be any  warranty issues with KAI for such tweaking from another vendor?
 

[miggye]

Lol! wouldn't it have been easier if we went with Alenia! Joke......

kidding aside, i think the Koreans wouldn't mind, as their brochure does carry Israeli developed munitions and missiles, plus a recce pod if i remember, aside from American and Korean products...... we also need to factor in that the radar itself is an Israeli product.....

[adroth]

Shared on the FB extension

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10210261650685483&set=gm.1081187421967104&type=3&theater

[adroth]

Check this out. Assuming this CNN article is an accurate quote . . . it could very well provide insight into Duterte's game . . .

. . . and why Teddy Locsin tweeted what he did. Learning lessons from India's Nehru perhaps?

http://cnnphilippines.com/news/2016/09/30/Duterte-serious-about-ending-PH-US-joint-exercises.html

=====

Metro Manila (CNN Philippines) — President Rodrigo Duterte is standing his ground: the joint war games of the Philippines and the U.S. next week will be the last, not only this year, but throughout his six-year term.

In a speech after returning from his trip to Vietnam early Friday, the President lamented the lack of military hardware transfer from the U.S. to the Philippines.

"They asked for a joint maneuvers, operations and yet there is no capability between the weapons and the armaments they use and even in the communications… They don't allow us to buy the missiles. So what would be the point?" Duterte said.

< Edited >

[adroth]

US hesitation at giving us "more than we can chew" is not actually without basis. Remember, no nation knows our dirty laundry more than the US. Our history of mismanagement, lack of a maintenance culture, et. al. Hence the long-standing discussion on the forum about a "need to earn our allies' trust".

The following paper outlines how JUSMAG was involved in the shift from the territorial defense-oriented AFP Modernization Program of 1995 to the ISO-centric Capability Upgrade Program of the Arroyo years.

http://fmso.leavenworth.army.mil/documents/Philippine_Defense_Reform.pdf

Merging post 9/11 Counter Terrorist Security Assistance into the PDR, and the Nuts and Bolts of Reform

As mentioned earlier, in October 1999, the U.S. DoD and Philippine DND initiated policy-level discussions aimed at finding the best way to assist the Philippines in the development of a
credible defense capability. In 2001, a narrower scoped and less formal JDA than the 2003 version, set the stage for Department of State military grant aid programs designed to improve the AFP’s ‘center of gravity’, its critical lack of mobility to fight around the archipelago.

The following two major Security Assistance programs were established:

First, the Mobility Maintenance Program, a plan developed by U.S. PACOM and the U.S. Embassy’s Joint U.S. Military Assistance Group (JUSMAG-Philippines) developed a five-year plan to improve the AFP key mobility systems and presented it to U.S. Department of State’s for FY02 Foreign Military Finance (FMF) grant consideration.

The Mobility Maintenance Program originally funded logistics and maintenance support for AFP’s four major mobility systems; 
M35 2.5-ton trucks, 78' Fast Patrol Craft, C-130 aircraft and UH-1H helicopters and included;

● Spare and repair parts for all four systems
● Programmed Depot Maintenance for C-130 aircraft
● Planned Restrictive Availabilities (Depot Level Overhaul) and Emergent Restrictive Availabilities for 78' Fast Patrol Crafts
● An eight-man Technical Assistance Field Team (TAFT)

Originally envisioned as a "shot in the arm" to AFP maintenance and logistics capabilities to improve mobility in support of the War on Terror, the intent was to assist the AFP in the short
term with their C-130s, 78’ patrol vessels and UH-1 Helicopters, as well as to gain control over the ‘cannibalization’ of these critical systems and to give them time to properly budget for equipment life cycles, operational costs, and appropriate maintenance program improvements.
 
The original FMF funding scheme was $19 million in 2002, $20 million in 2003, and then reduced to only $5 million in 2006  while the AFP gradually took over funding responsibilities for
their system's operational readiness. However, by 2005 the United States sustained Mobility Maintenance Program funding levels without any corresponding contributions.

In order to prepare for eventual Philippine funding, the JUSMAG and the AFP J4 immediately established the appropriate Foreign Military Sales (FMS) cases to support the elements of the Mobility Maintenance Program. The Mobility Maintenance Program began with the appropriately funded Foreign Military Sales cases and Technical Assistance Field Team deployed to the Philippines in early 2003.

There were very real reasons behind why the US dissuaded the AFP from embarking on spending programs that would take money away from addressing very basic problems at the infantry level. The now famous "move, shoot, communicate" requirement.

Now, a full 6 years after the conclusion of the ISO-centric CUP Phase 1, there appears to be a difference of opinion as to whether or not the Philippines is ready to take the next step.

Letting the cat out of the bag re the SAA-LIFT munitions project

Given the Philippines' history with this . . .

This must never happen again

. . . is the US like a dad who is hesitant to give away the keys to the car?

The C-130 graveyard at Mactan AFB at its height in the early 2000s

I for one have always taken the long-view of building up that trust by creation of a track record of operational competence. The powers-that-be feel a need to short-cut that process by considering equipment vendors that are more focused on cash-for-equipment rather than waiting for the AFP to mature.

One can only hope that the reasons for that hesitation are not forgotten . . .

. . . as the quest to fast-track modernization is pursued.

[mayk]

The Mobility Maintenance Program originally funded logistics and maintenance support for AFP’s four major mobility systems; 
M35 2.5-ton trucks, 78' Fast Patrol Craft, C-130 aircraft and UH-1H helicopters and included;

● Spare and repair parts for all four systems
● Programmed Depot Maintenance for C-130 aircraft
● Planned Restrictive Availabilities (Depot Level Overhaul) and Emergent Restrictive Availabilities for 78' Fast Patrol Crafts
● An eight-man Technical Assistance Field Team (TAFT)

Originally envisioned as a "shot in the arm" to AFP maintenance and logistics capabilities to improve mobility in support of the War on Terror, the intent was to assist the AFP in the short
term with their C-130s, 78’ patrol vessels and UH-1 Helicopters, as well as to gain control over the ‘cannibalization’ of these critical systems and to give them time to properly budget for equipment life cycles, operational costs, and appropriate maintenance program improvements.

This sheds some light to my fixation (from timawa)  with the Andrada class program. I would categorically say that this is still the most successful shipbuilding program of the PN. Was it US management and funding that made the program successful? Two other shipbuilding programs are comparable in scale, the Aguinaldo class and the MPACs. The Aguinaldo class stopped at 2 and the MPACs at just a handful. The rumored Shaldag program can also be considered an evolution of the Andrada class program.

For discussions of SRDP what made the Andrada program successful?

* mod please prune this thread as you see fit