Defense of the Republic of the Philippines

General Discussion => General Discussion => Topic started by: mamiyapis on August 23, 2018, 10:37:38 PM

Title: US dangles F-16 fighters, attack helicopters to PH
Post by: mamiyapis on August 23, 2018, 10:37:38 PM
US dangles F-16 fighters, attack helicopters to PH

http://globalnation.inquirer.net/169251/us-dangles-f-16-fighters-attack-helicopters-ph
Quote

In light of a possible procurement of Russian submarines, the United States is now offering the Philippines its Lockheed Martin F-16 multi-role fighters and attack helicopters.

President Rodrigo Duterte on Thursday disclosed this as he read a letter signed by three Cabinet secretaries of the United States government seeking a meeting with him to discuss the Philippine military’s modernization program.

The letter was read during the 12th-anniversary rites of the Eastern Mindanao Command (Eastmincom) in Davao City.

“We know, however, that our nations can do even more to integrate our economic and security concerns,” read the letter sent by US Ambassador Sung Kim, as quoted by Duterte...

Title: Re: US dangles F-16 fighters, attack helicopters to PH
Post by: horge on August 24, 2018, 05:28:09 AM
This is, what? The sixth time we've been 'offered' F-16?  :o  ;D
If it's anything like the last four offers, I fear it will all come to the same end result, and not
because of the quality of the materiel in play. If we want something, we have to pay to
acquire and sustain. If we don't want to pay (even soft loans require repayment), nothing
will come of it.

Attack rotary-wing has been on the table for DECADES, and have AFAICT revolved around
Cobras. State Department would have fewer qualms signing off on the sale of a platform
with very limited regional-projection, but same salsa again: if we want something, we have
to pay to acquire and sustain. If we don't want to pay (even soft loans require repayment),
nothing will come of it.

(Re)publicizing what the PH can avail of (if it does its part as a credible buyer-operator, not
least of which is putting up the cash to acquire, and the infrastructure/logistics to sustain)
is a smart way to address the "sabong" (for the non-Tagalog speakers, 'cockfight') style of
bargaining employed by PH: it'll play on "the historic bond between PH and US", and give
PH.gov something to show for its bargaining... but may not actually be putting anything
really new on the table.


I hope there IS something new on the table (IOW, more generous financing terms, which
IMO is what Pres. Duterte has and/or should have been playing for all along), but you will
have to color me jaded, m...

because practical poverty and prideful sense of entitlement are the colors of the season
for the majority of those who post online as interested Filipinos, as is likely to reflect
something in the larger offline population as well, and politics is playing to the crowd.

Cheers,
h.



 
Title: Re: US dangles F-16 fighters, attack helicopters to PH
Post by: adroth on August 24, 2018, 06:55:15 AM
This is, what? The sixth time we've been 'offered' F-16?  :o  ;D

There was Marcos' export-version thumb down.

The most recent was during PNoy's time. A half-arsed request met with a half-arsed response. Back then, we could barely keep one C-130 flying.

Inquirer.net (https://globalnation.inquirer.net/20645/president-aquino-bares-wish-fighter-jets-from-us-just-like-indonesia) -  December 10, 2011
Quote
Mr. Aquino, a member of the Philippine Air Force (PAF) reserve force, made the remarks in his speech before officers and personnel during opening ceremonies for the PAF Invitational Shootfest and firing range blessing at Villamor Airbase on Saturday.

“We went to Bali, Indonesia, recently and as we were leaving for the Philippines, we saw at their airport three F-16s parked and they would be given two squadrons more by our American friends,” Mr. Aquino said in an impromptu speech.

“I said, this looks rather equitible. Two squadrons for them, one ship for us,” he added in jest.

The President said he would remind Obama of the strategic partnership between the Philippines and the United States.

Quote
If it's anything like the last four offers, I fear it will all come to the same end result, and not
because of the quality of the materiel in play. If we want something, we have to pay to
acquire and sustain. If we don't want to pay (even soft loans require repayment), nothing
will come of it.


(Re)publicizing what the PH can avail of (if it does its part as a credible buyer-operator, not
least of which is putting up the cash to acquire, and the infrastructure/logistics to sustain)
is a smart way to address the "sabong" (for the non-Tagalog speakers, 'cockfight') style of
bargaining employed by PH: it'll play on "the historic bond between PH and US", and give
PH.gov something to show for its bargaining... but may not actually be putting anything
really new on the table.


I hope there IS something new on the table (IOW, more generous financing terms, which
IMO is what Pres. Duterte has and/or should have been playing for all along), but you will
have to color me jaded, m...

How well we take care of our FA-50s will go a long way to demonstrating our readiness to operate more complicated aircraft.

JUSMAG is reportedly carefully studying how we use those birds. Only time will tell.
Title: Re: US dangles F-16 fighters, attack helicopters to PH
Post by: Invictus on August 24, 2018, 07:20:20 AM
Duterte to accept US offers for AFP if done ‘in good faith’ (https://news.mb.com.ph/2018/08/23/duterte-to-accept-us-offers-for-afp-if-done-in-good-faith/)

Quote
President Duterte is still not keen on accepting the offer made by the United States for the modernization of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) unless he is sure that the act is done in good faith.

Duterte made the statement after he revealed that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross, and Secretary of Defense James Mattis expressed wanting to meet him.

The President then argued that if ever he decides to buy any of the items, there is no assurance that they will really arrive to the country, or if they really are new ones and not just refurbished.

“I would lime to remind America–all of them. How sure na makuha ko ‘yung binili ko (that I will get what I bought)?” Duterte asked.

Title: Re: US dangles F-16 fighters, attack helicopters to PH
Post by: redcomet_m on August 24, 2018, 09:23:56 AM
i think, if it would help, Gen. Kintanar or maybe the spokesperson of PAF should make a press tidbit that he welcomes the offer by their US counterpart, to make public the organization's appreciation of the offer plus give a small reminder how it will help with PAFs plans.
Title: Re: US dangles F-16 fighters, attack helicopters to PH
Post by: horge on August 24, 2018, 10:31:25 AM
This is, what? The sixth time we've been 'offered' F-16?  :o  ;D

There was Marcos' export-version thumb down.

Yes, the Marcos-era offer was AFAIK first.

There was also the offer from Reagan communicated  by visiting Secy of State George Schultz
in 1986, of an alleged two squadrons of unspecified Falcons, but which went south when, IIRC
Cory Aquino snubbed a visiting Secy of Defense Caspar Weinberger, in turn due to some other
diplomatic fracas.

Then there were the embargoed Peace Gate FMS Falcons, which weren't delivered to Pakistan
due its nuclear ambitions, and were boneyarded in 1995, just a year after manufacture. These
were offered to Indonesia, which then backed out, and to the Philippines 1995-1997. Initial
offer was for 11 birds, but changed over time when Taiwan turned down their allotment of 17
of the same birds, for being less advanced (Block 15 OCU) than the birds Taiwan was already
operating. In any case, the Philippines dithered because (given the Asian Economic Miracle)
some PH legislators rejected second-hands and demanded BRAND-NEW aircraft, kasi nga daw
"because we deserve better". Lol, the Asian Economic Crisis hit in 1997.

The cry for BRAND-NEW aircraft nevertheless produced an exploratory proposal for such, and
however short-lived, the "brand new" birds would AFAICT have still been the same boneyarded
Falcons, albeit with SLEP and upgrades to 50/52 standard, but, cue the Asian Economic Crisis.

Then there was that PH-US "2+2" meeting which produced what can only have been an interim
solution: a couple of (lol) boneyard Falcons for us to LEARN how to operate and sustain the
sort... but again, pride and harrumhping  ruled the day.

And then there's this latest offer.
IMO, EDA Falcons --or even new-order Vipers-- are technically ALWAYS available. MNNA tayo.
They are technically ALWAYS on offer... but we still have to evidence a serious intent to
acquire, operate and sustain in a responsible manner. Balik an naman tayo sa 'maturity'.

That last thing aside, shit's ALWAYS on offer. All that really changes is the offer to finance.
JMHO, YMMV, TANSTAAFL, etc.


Duterte to

accept US offers for AFP if done ‘in good faith’ (https://news.mb.com.ph/2018/08/23/duterte-to-accept-us-offers-for-afp-if-done-in-good-faith/)

Quote
President Duterte is still not keen on accepting the offer made by the United States for the
modernization of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) unless he is sure that the act is done in good faith.
Duterte made the statement after he revealed that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross,
and Secretary of Defense James Mattis expressed wanting to meet him.

The President then argued that if ever he decides to buy any of the items, there is no assurance that they will really
arrive to the country, or if they really are new ones and not just refurbished.

“I would lime to remind America–all of them. How sure na makuha ko ‘yung binili ko (that I will get what I bought)?”
Duterte asked.

While I may disagree with his habitual style of expression...
President Duterte is right (as a buyer's rep) to be concerned about delivery. There is  enough
basis on the ground for an embargo to deny us the birds, just like what happened to Pakistan.

However, Pakistan was a real buyer with real money, and had every right to voice concerns.
The Philippines seems more in the mode of demanding a triple discount on factory-overruns,
as well as a loan to pay the triple-discounted price, and still expecting full warranties and
VIP customer service, lol
Title: Re: US dangles F-16 fighters, attack helicopters to PH
Post by: Invictus on August 24, 2018, 12:23:42 PM
Precondition?  ::)

Duterte on meeting US officials: Return Balangiga bells first (https://news.mb.com.ph/2018/08/24/duterte-on-meeting-us-officials-return-balangiga-bells-first/)

Quote
In a speech in Panacan, Davao Thursday night, Duterte said that before anything else, the United States should first return the Balangiga bells its soldiers took more than a century ago. “Kung hindi nila isauli ‘yang Balangiga bells, wala tayong pag-usapan (If they won’t return the Balangiga bells, then there’s nothing to talk about). I will not [talk to them],” Duterte said.
Title: Re: US dangles F-16 fighters, attack helicopters to PH
Post by: mamiyapis on August 24, 2018, 02:59:21 PM
Precondition?  ::)

Duterte on meeting US officials: Return Balangiga bells first (https://news.mb.com.ph/2018/08/24/duterte-on-meeting-us-officials-return-balangiga-bells-first/)

Quote
In a speech in Panacan, Davao Thursday night, Duterte said that before anything else, the United States should first return the Balangiga bells its soldiers took more than a century ago. “Kung hindi nila isauli ‘yang Balangiga bells, wala tayong pag-usapan (If they won’t return the Balangiga bells, then there’s nothing to talk about). I will not [talk to them],” Duterte said.

IF this is the precondition, then it has already been met... and means there is a chance the meeting is happening... and that Duterte actually already has made up his mind. Hopefully for the betterment of the PAF.
Title: Re: US dangles F-16 fighters, attack helicopters to PH
Post by: mamiyapis on August 24, 2018, 03:02:59 PM

And then there's this latest offer.
IMO, EDA Falcons --or even new-order Vipers-- are technically ALWAYS available. MNNA tayo.
They are technically ALWAYS on offer... but we still have to evidence a serious intent to
acquire, operate and sustain in a responsible manner. Balik an naman tayo sa 'maturity'.

That last thing aside, shit's ALWAYS on offer. All that really changes is the offer to finance.
JMHO, YMMV, TANSTAAFL, etc.

......

However, Pakistan was a real buyer with real money, and had every right to voice concerns.
The Philippines seems more in the mode of demanding a triple discount on factory-overruns,
as well as a loan to pay the triple-discounted price, and still expecting full warranties and
VIP customer service, lol

As far as I understand, the funding for the MRF has actually been signed and is simply waiting for DBM(lol) to release funding.
I have a feeling this time, the money is actually there to buy what's needed... just needs the money to be released so that
the relevant agencies can do their thing.

If I heard correctly, the budget is around $2.1-2.0 billion @ P54-55 peg for the exchange rate?
Title: Re: US dangles F-16 fighters, attack helicopters to PH
Post by: Buster1123 on August 25, 2018, 11:50:53 AM
If I heard correctly, the budget is around $2.1-2.0 billion @ P54-55 peg for the exchange rate?

seems enough to buy 24 - JAS39C/D or 12 - Gripen NG
Title: Re: US dangles F-16 fighters, attack helicopters to PH
Post by: tagalacion on August 27, 2018, 03:36:29 PM
No argument the F-16 Block 70 is far superior to the JAS39CD. 

However, the PAF (or at least some inside it) is already giving some broad hints about what they really want:

a) Sustainability over 'raw' combat capability:
https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2018/08/26/1845880/f16-jets-are-expensive-maintain

b) 2 Erieye AEWC with 12 MRFs, i.e. 2 birds; 1 stone (if SAAB's offer is similar to the Thai deal):
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/news/national/30304127

c1) More than 12 JAS39CDs + 2 Erieyes (if Mr Mamiyapis' budget figure is correct):

OR

c2) Attractive AAM + ASM munitions options:

MBDA Meteor AAM:
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/meteor-introduction-transforms-swedish-air-defence-425537/

RBS 15 ASHM:
https://www.jetthrustimages.com/blog/2018/1/thai-gripens-rbs15-missile-t50th-deliveries


Just my two cents' worth...
Title: Re: US dangles F-16 fighters, attack helicopters to PH
Post by: horge on August 27, 2018, 05:01:16 PM
No argument the F-16 Block 70 is far superior to the JAS39CD. 

Even 50/52 outmatches 39C/D, and therein may be one of the real tricks to keeping the 39's
on-paper sustainment costs low: actual combat capability can be correlated to TOW. 39C/D's
claimed DCPFH alone is astonishingly low, but is not quite so low for E/F (aka NG), yes?

As Saab made the 39 more and more capable, to match rival platforms (and more importantly,
potential-operators' NEEDS), the 39's weight increased generationally, and inevitably bloated
its DCPFH. If the 39 were to ever truly match Viper for capability, I suspect that the daylight
between the two platforms' opcosts would vanish, or that Viper might even come out costing
less, PFH.

The real question is whether there's enough capability daylight between FA-50PH and 39, to
justify the colossal cost of another combat jet logistical tail. IOW, if it's going to really hurt in
the nuts, no matter which MRF is selected, why not get the MRF that more substantially out-
performs the FA-50PH?

Flip it around: if Viper seems too much capability and cost (lol), and Gripen seems not enough
improvement over FA-50PH for its cost, then is it not an indication that FA-50PH actually hits
closest to a sweet-spot intersection of capability we actually need and cost we can afford

:o  ;)  ;D  :o  ;)  ;D



Yes, I'm trolling against my own preferences... but I'm trolling for a NEEDS-based discussion.




Title: Re: US dangles F-16 fighters, attack helicopters to PH
Post by: Mr. S on August 27, 2018, 06:37:38 PM
I think both SAAB's own estimates and claims from the recent Slovakian purchase re: op costs for Gripen and F-16 should be taken with a grain of salt. The only Air Force that currently operates both types seems to only be sending their Gripens to international exercises. Granted their F-16s are a bit long in the tooth.

As an aside, is the Block 70 in service with any air forces currently? Bahrain and Slovakia haven't received theirs. Does the USAF operate anything newer than Block 52?

Who's to say that having a swarm of F/A-50s with some form of BVR and backed up by airborne radar platforms isn't the right way to go? :P Launch and land from a distance instead of trying to tangle with J-11s.  ;D
Title: Re: US dangles F-16 fighters, attack helicopters to PH
Post by: tagalacion on August 27, 2018, 09:34:15 PM
Hi Sir H!  :)

I'm sure PAF is also aware of the yawning performance discrepancy between Gripen C/D and the F-16 (even the 'older' Block 50/52).  They might even be keenly aware that the 39C/D doesn't outperform the FA-50 by much, given they're basically using the same engine, i.e. RM12 is a derivative of the GE-F404.

I was just calling attention to how PAF's assertion on sustainability might be pointing to the JAS39C/D as their preference (or at least by some inside the PAF) anyway. 

It's possible the low CPFH really is that attractive to PAF which tells me they've already done some due diligence to confirm this with RTAF which has now been operating 39C/D's for the better part of the decade.

But is that really the only consideration?

Nobody here (least of all, me) is going to argue that a Viper will almost always beat a Gripen in a balls-to-the-wall, top gun type scenario; but isn't air combat a systems fight just like what was pinned in the old timawa thread?

The point is, perhaps the PAF was realistic enough to understand that the old school way of just trying to reach the 'merge' so we can shoot down bad guys using superb training and skills to squeeze the last ounce of performance from our fighter aircraft is ultimately a losing strategy for an air force like ours.

And if that's the context, then I can certainly see why getting 2 Erieyes in the bargain is such an attractive proposition for the PAF, not to mention the possibility of also getting superb standoff weapons like the Meteor and the RBS15.  After all, the ability to engage hostile aircraft and vessels without exposing itself to counter-fire is probably 'sexier' in PAF's eyes than just the raw 'performance' represented by the Viper.

Of course, the US can always match whatever Saab is offering in terms of AWACS and standoff (i.e. BVRAAM, ASM) weaponry.  What I doubt is whether their offer can fit the PAF's approved budget.
Title: Re: US dangles F-16 fighters, attack helicopters to PH
Post by: mamiyapis on August 27, 2018, 09:37:33 PM

Even 50/52 outmatches 39C/D, and therein may be one of the real tricks to keeping the 39's
on-paper sustainment costs low: actual combat capability can be correlated to TOW. 39C/D's
claimed DCPFH alone is astonishingly low, but is not quite so low for E/F (aka NG), yes?

As Saab made the 39 more and more capable, to match rival platforms (and more importantly,
potential-operators' NEEDS), the 39's weight increased generationally, and inevitably bloated
its DCPFH. If the 39 were to ever truly match Viper for capability, I suspect that the daylight
between the two platforms' opcosts would vanish, or that Viper might even come out costing
less, PFH.

The real question is whether there's enough capability daylight between FA-50PH and 39, to
justify the colossal cost of another combat jet logistical tail. IOW, if it's going to really hurt in
the nuts, no matter which MRF is selected, why not get the MRF that more substantially out-
performs the FA-50PH?



But there lies the rub... if the needs dictate we go with the sweet-spot solution and the PAF determined
that range... is it wrong to stick with that even if we know for a fact a different solution would bring us
better capability?

As for the lack of "daylight" between a putative 39 C/D and a 50, I offer a different argument for the
acquisition of the 39 as a weapons platform... why not use the 39s as a dedicated maritime strike or
anti-shipping platform? They have the necessary AAR/IFR capability the current crop of 50s lack. They
also bring the requisite sensor and payload capacity expected of a dedicated maritime strike platform.
They also bring a built-in capability in the RBS-15 missiles instead of having a missile system integrated
on whatever platform we own/buy(cause the Germans will never sell us the Taurus 350K2, Haesong air-
launched is also a long shot on any FA50s, and PDutz will never allow a Harpoon Block 2 integration to
happen... well, any RP.gov for that matter).

I prefer to think of it this way... the FA50s would act as our Mirages(lol), while the JAS-39s act as our
pissed-off, Exocet-slinging Super Etendards(lolol).   

Quote
Flip it around: if Viper seems too much capability and cost (lol), and Gripen seems not enough
improvement over FA-50PH for its cost, then is it not an indication that FA-50PH actually hits
closest to a sweet-spot intersection of capability we actually need and cost we can afford

:o  ;)  ;D  :o  ;)  ;D



Yes, I'm trolling against my own preferences... but I'm trolling for a NEEDS-based discussion.

h... you don't know how close you are to the sweet spot ;D
Title: Re: US dangles F-16 fighters, attack helicopters to PH
Post by: mamiyapis on August 27, 2018, 09:51:15 PM
Who's to say that having a swarm of F/A-50s with some form of BVR and backed up by airborne radar platforms isn't the right way to go? :P Launch and land from a distance instead of trying to tangle with J-11s.  ;D

 ;D ;) :)

The point is, perhaps the PAF was realistic enough to understand that the old school way of just trying to reach the 'merge' so we can shoot down bad guys using superb training and skills to squeeze the last ounce of performance from our fighter aircraft is ultimately a losing strategy for an air force like ours.

And if that's the context, then I can certainly see why getting 2 Erieyes in the bargain is such an attractive proposition for the PAF, not to mention the possibility of also getting superb standoff weapons like the Meteor and the RBS15.  After all, the ability to engage hostile aircraft and vessels without exposing itself to counter-fire is probably 'sexier' in PAF's eyes than just the raw 'performance' represented by the Viper.

Of course, the US can always match whatever Saab is offering in terms of AWACS and standoff (i.e. BVRAAM, ASM) weaponry.  What I doubt is whether their offer can fit the PAF's approved budget.

Winner winner, chicken dinner!

There is already a growing realization in the PAF that under current circumstances, there will never be enough
money to adequately fund a relatively large(lol) MRF force under any stretch of the imagination. It sounds a bit
wrong but the MRO side seems to have tipped things in favor of cost-effective defensive aircraft over outright
raw performance. This seems to be thanks to the introduction of the FA-50s into the system and exposing the
service of what it means to operate a modern jet force. It doesn't help any bidders for the program that the
Koreans, who in building their 80% F-16 basically pushed to the hilt, got 100% of the 80% they were gunning
to achieve... and basically built an over-achieving LCA. 

Besides, with the current state of the PAF's Air Defense network, if war were to break out rather soon... I think
we would probably be better served with 24-36 FA-50s just flying point defense inside PH airspace than a single
squadron of top-of-the-line F-16s trying their best to re-enact the Battle of Thermopylae.
Title: Re: US dangles F-16 fighters, attack helicopters to PH
Post by: tagalacion on August 28, 2018, 01:51:21 AM
Would that lack of 'daylight' between 39C/D and FA-50 get even more pronounced should KIA get a go-ahead from LM to build and sell a single-seat version of the FA-50 with AAR capability and maybe even CFT?  FA-50's in that configuration forming the bulk of our tactical fighter squadrons and acting as a 'node' in a fully functioning IADS might not be so bad. 

Anyway, to get back into the nitty gritty: Another question that hasn't really gotten much media attention lately is just what attack helo the PAF can source from the US?

Apaches might be out of the question if it costs USD930M for just 6 units, as per the India deal (https://thediplomat.com/2018/06/us-approves-sale-of-6-more-apache-ah-64e-attack-helicopters-to-india/).

However, there seems to be plenty of EDA AH-1Ws (http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/17810/pentagon-to-sell-off-its-ah-1w-super-cobra-attack-helicopter-fleet) that's available, though.  The only problem for PAF - assuming they want those 'Whisky Cobras' - is how they're going to 'sell' that to a president who had already spoken out against getting used/refurbished US helicopters.  (But there's hope, though, since President Duterte didn't seem to mind the AH-1 from Jordan - and that's even older than the EDA AH-1W and is only single-engined.  Of course, that was an out-and-out donation.  This deal for Super Cobras won't be. So...)

To allow Duterte to save face - and assuming they really want to sell off their 'Whisky Bravos' - the US could sell a few new build AH-1Z to the PAF as a 'token' and bundle as much AH-1Ws as the PAF can afford/stomach and call them "force multipliers".  The Americans can also play up the fact that these Super Cobras are being manufactured by the same company that the PAF is trying to get CUH's from, Textron; thus simplifying the logistics chain.

Anyway, I do hope PAF gets AH-1Zs because, based on their reaction to the American F-16 'overture', that might be the only "Viper" they're ever going to fly. ;D
Title: Re: US dangles F-16 fighters, attack helicopters to PH
Post by: horge on August 28, 2018, 05:11:23 AM
I think both SAAB's own estimates and claims from the recent Slovakian purchase re: op costs for Gripen and F-16 should be taken with a grain of salt.
EVERYTHING has to be taken with a grain of salt.
Vendors ALWAYS tell lies, big and small, uphill and downhill.

Who's to say that having a swarm of F/A-50s with some form of BVR and backed up by airborne radar platforms isn't the right way to go?
Myself, for one.  ;D
See below.

:P Launch and land from a distance instead of trying to tangle with J-11s.  ;D
But which BVRAAMs would those be?
You can only shake wut ya momma gave ya...
Same applies to PGM's for moving sand or spearing fish, and besides, you might have to
rethink what OPFOR air would likely be trying to do, and what PAF would be trying to do,
if actual shooting ever broke out, and the conditions under which shooting would begin.
Try to rethink who would be the one forced to enter the other's AD sphere.

As for the lack of "daylight" between a putative 39 C/D and a 50, I offer a different argument for the
acquisition of the 39 as a weapons platform... why not use the 39s as a dedicated maritime strike or
anti-shipping platform? They have the necessary AAR/IFR capability the current crop of 50s lack. They
also bring the requisite sensor and payload capacity expected of a dedicated maritime strike platform.
They also bring a built-in capability in the RBS-15 missiles instead of having a missile system integrated
on whatever platform we own/buy...

I prefer to think of it this way... the FA50s would act as our Mirages(lol), while the JAS-39s act as our
pissed-off, Exocet-slinging Super Etendards(lolol).
Okay, but you're not changing the level of pain, so much as redefining its purpose, and I
suspect many can point out that there are acquisition/sustainment-cheaper alternatives
as AAR-kitted AShM platforms: the runts of the litter perhaps being those mothballed AM
AMX pitched at PH awhile back (theoretically cleared, or at least successfully-evaluated
for Marte ER and Exocet). There are certainly more capable options that still cost so much
less (lifecycle) than 39, because most of them are EDA.... but I'm rambling now.

With your leave, m...

[soapbox]
We were (correct me if I'm wrong) talking about maritime strike, or worse, interdiction?
In like tone as my caution to Mr.S...  just whose AD bubble is this all taking place in?
What possible, effective role for a 'swarm' of AAR-illiterate, heater-only FA-50PH, then?
That far out to sea (or rather, that far into OPFOR AD), it's all on the AAR-fluent PGM-slinger.
Does ^that not then prescribe true, fully-capable MRF?
It still wouldn't be enough, no? Given the domestic EWR picture, even Viper is a limp dick.

We'd need true MRF operating within a true AD-defeat system, which we can't afford.
It's something 99% of the nations upon God's green earth can't afford.
That's why, in that context again, we'd sorely need our MDT ally's superpower support.

PAF assets will have crucial roles to play, interoperating with the US in an MDT situation.
PAF assets have crucial roles to play, precursive or preventive to an MDT situation.
PAF assets include platforms other than combat jets, and its the "other than" category that
will play the BULK of those crucial roles, keeping our Republic safe from her enemies.
[/soapbox]

Would that lack of 'daylight' between 39C/D and FA-50 get even more pronounced should KIA get a go-ahead from LM to build and sell a single-seat version of the FA-50 with AAR capability and maybe even CFT?  FA-50's in that configuration forming the bulk of our tactical fighter squadrons and acting as a 'node' in a fully functioning IADS might not be so bad.
One can dream.
Until there actually IS such an FA-50 iteration in LRIP man lang and available to PH,
dreaming is all ^that is, 'di ba?

I'd rather focus on what FA-50PH can actually do, before gauging what a putative 'kuya'
(elder brother) MRF should be able to do. What did Marawi teach us about FA-50PH's CAS
and Strike limitations, and in a zero-AD environment no less? What do FA-50PH's real world
(PAF) and theoretical loadouts, its combat radius thereby, and above all, the state of and
prognoses for PH EWR, tell us about FA-50PH's limitations in *gasp* OCA or (okay, I'll play
along with the most common armchair-gaming) DCA or kahit man lang maritime strike?

I've been deliberately talking about a 'sweet spot', and about 'pain', for a reason.
Tell me if a comfort zone is compatible with military readiness.

I do hope PAF gets AH-1Zs because, based on their reaction to the American F-16 'overture', that might be the only "Viper" they're ever going to fly. ;D
You're brutal.  I like you. :o  ;D
I doubt there will be Zulus though.
Title: Re: US dangles F-16 fighters, attack helicopters to PH
Post by: tagalacion on August 28, 2018, 08:50:14 PM
I'd rather focus on what FA-50PH can actually do, before gauging what a putative 'kuya'
(elder brother) MRF should be able to do.

But isn't it possible PAF had actually already gone and evaluated and realized FA-50PH needs a 'kuya' after all?  ;D

Better avionics, certified for better weapons, aerial refueling, etc.; stuff we'd otherwise pay through the nose for to get for the Geagles - and that's assuming they'd even be available options we can go for - are already pre-loaded for the Gripens.



I doubt there will be Zulus though.

It's true that Zulus would cost a bit more than Whiskeys but I still wouldn't put it past the president if he did go for it.  After all, those would really fit the bill insofar as the president's pronouncements go wrt getting brand new - no more refurbished helos from the US - and insofar as what he believes the PAF needs when it comes to COIN (https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/philippine-president-says-buying-us-f-16-jets-utterly-useless/articleshow/65526267.cms).

Of course, if PAF really is looking to get lots of attack birds (e.g. 12 - 24) they can always lobby the president for it because the president had shown time and again that he does listen to them.  Case in point (again) are those Jordanian AH-1's that are probably going to be older than any of the Whiskeys that the US can offer us as excess defense articles.
Title: Re: US dangles F-16 fighters, attack helicopters to PH
Post by: adroth on August 28, 2018, 11:36:22 PM
I'd rather focus on what FA-50PH can actually do, before gauging what a putative 'kuya' (elder brother) MRF should be able to do. What did Marawi teach us about FA-50PH's CAS and Strike limitations, and in a zero-AD environment no less? What do FA-50PH's real world (PAF) and theoretical loadouts, its combat radius thereby, and above all, the state of and prognoses for PH EWR, tell us about FA-50PH's limitations in *gasp* OCA or (okay, I'll play along with the most common armchair-gaming) DCA or kahit man lang maritime strike?

I've been deliberately talking about a 'sweet spot', and about 'pain', for a reason.
Tell me if a comfort zone is compatible with military readiness.

I wrote the following article about the what the FA-50 was really for just for H's questions above:

http://defenseph.net/drp/index.php?topic=14.0

Partly to help the general public understand how such expensive pieces of kit helped the general cause of defense, but also to help the original proponents of the FA-50 . . . the ones who deliberately labelled it "Surface Attack Aircraft / Lead-In Fighter Trainer (SAA/LIFT)" . . .

. . . from having to explain the difference between the FA-50 and a true MRF.

It's the same pain that the Indian Air Force experienced with their law makers started thinking that India should buy more Tejas aircraft than imported aircraft like the Rafale et. al. The IAF quickly shutdown that idea pointing out that the Tejas was a short-ranged interceptor and it would take more of those types of point-defense fighters to achieve the air defense goals that would be satisfied by the likes of the Gripen, Rafale or the SU-35.

Note: Related discussion on the forum’s FB extension: https://m.facebook.com/groups/781170378635478?view=permalink&id=1508341009251741&ref=m_notif&notif_t=like

=====

Tejas far behind competitors, not enough to protect Indian skies: IAF
The IAF made a presentation to the government to explain why Tejas alone can't meet India's requirements.

Sudhi Ranjan Sen  | Posted by Sonalee Borgohain
New Delhi, November 10, 2017 | UPDATED 19:54 IST

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/tejas-indian-air-force-f-16-mig-21-fighter-planes-ajit-doval/1/1086425.html

The IAF made a presentation to the government to explain why Tejas lags behind Sweden-made JAS 39 and US F-16.The IAF made a presentation to the government to explain why Tejas lags behind Sweden-made JAS 39 and US F-16.

Tejas - the indigenously made Light-Combat single engine fighter - isn't enough to protect Indian skies, the India Air Force (IAF) has told the government. The response came after the South Block asked the IAF to scrap its plans of acquiring single-engine fighters from global, top sources told India Today.

The IAF said the Tejas is far behind its competitors like the JAS 39 Gripen manufactured by the Swedish aerospace company Saab and the US made F-16 manufactured by Lockheed Martin, sources said.

National Security Advisor Ajit Doval is understood to have raised the issue following which the government asked the IAF to scrap its plans to acquire foreign made single engine fighters and go for the Indian made fighters only. Recently, the IAF made a presentation to the government to explain why Tejas alone can't meet India's requirements.

Documents accessed by India Today reveal that the IAF has told the government that the "endurance" of Tejas in combat is just about 59 minutes as against 3 hours of Gripen and nearly 4 fours for the F-16. Also, Tejas can carry a pay-load of about three tons against nearly six tons and seven tons by the Gripen and F-16 respectively.

"In other words, for target that needs about 36 bombs to be destroyed, one will have to deploy six Tejas as against just three Gripen or F-16," the IAF has told the government.

The IAF has also said Tejas needs 20 hours of serving for every hour of flying as against six hours for Gripen and 3.5 hours for F-16.

< Edited >

But when even the PAF started calling its plane a "Light MRF", I just gave up.
Title: Re: US dangles F-16 fighters, attack helicopters to PH
Post by: adroth on August 29, 2018, 01:13:42 AM
There is already a growing realization in the PAF that under current circumstances, there will never be enough money to adequately fund a relatively large(lol) MRF force under any stretch of the imagination. It sounds a bit wrong but the MRO side seems to have tipped things in favor of cost-effective defensive aircraft over outright raw performance. This seems to be thanks to the introduction of the FA-50s into the system and exposing the service of what it means to operate a modern jet force.

Like an athlete who wasn't as ready for a marathon as he originally thought eh? Times like this that I wish we still had the old "Peace Carvin in reverse" discussion. Would have been perfect addition to this.

The PAF has never been open in its lessons-learned. Hopefully someone going through MNSA or GSC will write a come-to-Jesus paper about what needs to happen.

As with many things in the AFP, there are a lot of lessons to learn before we can do our jobs competently. Yet another thing to think about when thinking we can push for the "3rd option (http://defenseph.net/drp/index.php?topic=3740.msg12014#msg12014)" in our current state.


====


So long as the plan is to eventually get MRFs, and not think that the FA-50 is enough . . . then we're still on track.

Title: Re: US dangles F-16 fighters, attack helicopters to PH
Post by: horge on August 29, 2018, 05:21:07 AM
But when even the PAF started calling its plane a "Light MRF", I just gave up.

Pussy.  ;D
Title: Re: US dangles F-16 fighters, attack helicopters to PH
Post by: Mr. S on August 29, 2018, 06:01:05 AM
There is already a growing realization in the PAF that under current circumstances, there will never be enough
money to adequately fund a relatively large(lol) MRF force under any stretch of the imagination. It sounds a bit
wrong but the MRO side seems to have tipped things in favor of cost-effective defensive aircraft over outright
raw performance. This seems to be thanks to the introduction of the FA-50s into the system and exposing the
service of what it means to operate a modern jet force. It doesn't help any bidders for the program that the
Koreans, who in building their 80% F-16 basically pushed to the hilt, got 100% of the 80% they were gunning
to achieve... and basically built an over-achieving LCA. 

Besides, with the current state of the PAF's Air Defense network, if war were to break out rather soon... I think
we would probably be better served with 24-36 FA-50s just flying point defense inside PH airspace than a single
squadron of top-of-the-line F-16s trying their best to re-enact the Battle of Thermopylae.

Can definitely see the advantage of having more platforms, but a bit concerning if they don't plan on purchasing some form of AEW to back up the ground radar. Or am I missing something?

But which BVRAAMs would those be?
You can only shake wut ya momma gave ya...
Same applies to PGM's for moving sand or spearing fish, and besides, you might have to
rethink what OPFOR air would likely be trying to do, and what PAF would be trying to do,
if actual shooting ever broke out, and the conditions under which shooting would begin.
Try to rethink who would be the one forced to enter the other's AD sphere.

A swarm of BVRAAM-armed FA-50 was meant mostly tongue-in-cheek so haven't given this much thought. Rafael's claiming "simplified integration" of I-Derby ER on the FA-50 (http://www.rafael.co.il/5622-977-en/Marketing.aspx) at least :D I think aside from a poster from KAI (http://bemil.chosun.com/nbrd/data/10040/upfile/201009/20100925140812_2.jpg), that's the only vendor-based source I've seen about integrating BVRAAM with the FA-50. Question is of course how much integration is going to cost, and if the Philippine Government is willing to foot the bill?

I'm under no illusions that the AFP could retake an island in the Spratlys without US support. ;)

Like an athlete who wasn't as ready for a marathon as he originally thought eh? Times like this that I wish we still had the old "Peace Carvin in reverse" discussion. Would have been perfect addition to this.
Semi-OT: If this was on Timawa, was this in reference to SG or the US stationing planes in the Philippines?
Title: Re: US dangles F-16 fighters, attack helicopters to PH
Post by: horge on August 29, 2018, 06:20:40 AM
But isn't it possible PAF had actually already gone and evaluated and realized FA-50PH needs a 'kuya' after all?  ;D

With PAF, anything is possible.
As adroth points out, PAF seems to have reevaluated a lead-in fighter-trainer (modified for light attack)
into a "light MRF" now. I actually think that sort of cognitive dissonance goes back to the very beginning
of the SAA-LIFT program. CGPAF Rabena stopped just short of formalizing it.

Name pa lang, no? "Surface Attack Aircraft / Lead-in Fighter-Trainer"
Almost ALL new-gen AJT's have an easy conversion for ground attack precisely because part of the AJT
syllabus includes weps (drill and/or live). E, kaso the impetus for eventual MRF acquisition was problems
out in the WPS, so en vez de "ground attack", ginawang "surface attack" to accommodate maritime.

The point to getting LIFT was to prepare pilots, groundcrew, PAF command, the OOP and above all, the
budget-authoring legislature for the PAIN of increased funding, maturity and competence demanded by
the effective operation+sustainment of MRF. If the "inreased funding" part is truly out of our reach, then
so be it --but the original point of the program is still what it was.

The SAA (Surface Attack Aircraft, lol) part was to address the need for an INTERIM/stopgap combat jet,
when we were down to just a handful of BJT's (the S-211's), so we'd have SOMETHING to fight with,
never mind how feeble the SAA, until proper MRF were online.


... Zulu ...

You're still going on about those? 

Kitted-out Mi-17 daw with a pitch for Mi-28A/N, 'di ba?  ::)





<<Peace Carvin in Reverse>>
That was a thread on timawa that IMO focused on the need for PAF to absorb correct sustainment skills
and culture by osmosis, through direct contact with and exposure to US Armed Forces practices wrt to
sustaining aircraft.

Because of "muh sovereignty" issues with basing US forces here (IIRC, EDCA was still in limbo then) I
suggested the halfway-option of incentivizing ATAC(!) to maintain a permanent presence here, to ease
ATAC's logistics in supporting regional shitfests like Balikatan, Cobra Gold, etc...
all in the hope that PAF might learn a thing or two, by osmosis nga.

However, I admitted it would likely all go sour anyway, because of 'mighty dragon vs. local serpent.'
Learning is so much harder when there's a lot of unlearning to do at the same time.
Title: Re: US dangles F-16 fighters, attack helicopters to PH
Post by: adroth on August 29, 2018, 10:05:24 AM
I'm under no illusions that the AFP could retake an island in the Spratlys without US support. ;)

The key would be to get China to give it up without the use of military force.

Semi-OT: If this was on Timawa, was this in reference to SG or the US stationing planes in the Philippines?

Horge pretty much summed it up.

That was a thread on timawa that IMO focused on the need for PAF to absorb correct sustainment skills and culture by osmosis, through direct contact with and exposure to US Armed Forces practices wrt to sustaining aircraft.

That was before the FA-50 had even been formally selected, the MRV-turned-SSV was not yet a done deal, and we only had one operational C-130.
Title: Re: US dangles F-16 fighters, attack helicopters to PH
Post by: adroth on September 07, 2018, 03:08:59 PM
(http://defenseph.net/bootcamp/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/1-12.jpg)
Title: Re: US dangles F-16 fighters, attack helicopters to PH
Post by: Mr. S on September 07, 2018, 04:14:13 PM
That a hint Mr.A?  ;D
Title: Re: US dangles F-16 fighters, attack helicopters to PH
Post by: adroth on September 08, 2018, 05:51:07 AM
The graphic above was shared by someone with above-average familiarity with what's happening behind closed doors. What it really means . . . is unclear.

Suffice to say, nothing is set in stone :-)
Title: Re: US dangles F-16 fighters, attack helicopters to PH
Post by: horge on September 08, 2018, 10:34:34 AM
Recalls (with weaker ooomph) those vendor's-promotional 'Philippine Air Force F-16 Falcon' decals/stickers
that were shared on timawa years back,

Title: Duterte to talk with Trump on arms purchase
Post by: adroth on September 09, 2018, 12:37:13 PM
Duterte to talk with Trump on arms purchase
Edith Regalado (The Philippine Star) - September 9, 2018 - 12:00am

DAVAO CITY  , Philippines  —  President Duterte plans to talk to US President Donald Trump about the possible purchase of military equipment for the military and the police.

The President reportedly still has to discuss with the military and the police what more they need in terms of weapons and armaments before taking the matter up with Trump.

The Palace earlier scoffed at the US threat of possible sanction over the purchase of Russian arms.

The President then rejected the US government’s recent offer to give weapons and defense equipment to the military.

The President said that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Defense Secretary James Mattis and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross have sent a letter to him offering US weapons and other defense equipment to the Philippines.

The letter from the three US officials even mentioned the F-16 fighter jets and attack helicopters that Duterte preferred.

Duterte, however, did not seem keen on the US offer, saying he found the letter “distasteful” as he brought up anew the criticism of the US government, then under president Barack Obama, of his crackdown on illegal drugs.

< Edited >

Read more at https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2018/09/09/1849882/duterte-talk-trump-arms-purchase#QklyZjJUf8roXlvR.99
Title: Re: US dangles F-16 fighters, attack helicopters to PH
Post by: Ayoshi on September 27, 2018, 05:01:09 AM
Lockheed Martin’s PHL pitch: 4th-gen F-16, Black Hawks | businessmirror.com.ph (https://businessmirror.com.ph/lockheed-martins-phl-pitch-4th-gen-f-16-black-hawks/) - September 27, 2018
Quote
American company Lockheed Martin offered its unrivaled fourth- generation F-16 fighter jets and Black Hawk helicopters from its subsidiary Sikorsky to fill the capability gap of the Air Force.

The defense manufacturer was among the exhibitors at the ongoing 3rd Asian Defense, Security and Crisis Management Exhibition and Conference (ADAS) at the World Trade Center in  Pasay City.

The Department of National Defense is currently looking for sources of attack helicopters for the Air Force after President Duterte scuttled the contract with Bell following the Canadian government’s pronouncement that it needs to review the contract between the firm and the Philippine government.

< snipped >

Howard said air forces in 25 countries around the world employ the “most combat-proven in history” F-16 and orders from countries—including Slovakia, which sealed the contract for the delivery of 14 fighter jets two months ago—keep coming.

The F-16 shares almost the same platform as the FA-50, except that it is more capable and advanced in almost all aspects compared to its Korean copy. Other than the difference in systems, avionics and capabilities, it carries some of the features of Lockheed Martin’s F-35 fifth-generation fighter jet.

On the other hand, Jacob Sifters, regional manager for business development of Sikorsky, said the Black Hawk should meet the requirement for attack, medical evacuation, humanitarian assistance, and search and rescue of the military.

(https://businessmirror.com.ph/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/top01a-092718.jpg)
Randy Howard, director of Business Development at Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Co. Integrated Fighter Group, takes a break for an interview at the sidelines of the the ADAS 2018 at the World Trade Center. Image Credits: Nonie Reyes


Other source: MaxDefense Philippines FB Page
Title: Re: US dangles F-16 fighters, attack helicopters to PH
Post by: adroth on November 15, 2019, 12:45:03 AM
https://www.facebook.com/groups/rpdefense/permalink/2388742861211547/

PAF PILOTS FLEW THE F-16 FALCON WITH US AIR NATIONAL GUARD PILOTS IN MARYLAND

A delegation of fighter pilots from the 5th Fighter Wing of the Philippine Air Force visits United States as part of the Bilateral Air Contingent Exchange- Philippines, or BACE-P.

During this visit, the PAF delegation was able to tour the F-16 facilities and experience an F-16 familiarization flight. This was hosted by the 113th Wing District of Columbia Air National Guard in Maryland in July 2019.

It was in February 2019 when delegates from the 113th Wing District of Columbia Air National Guard, worked closely with our Airforce personnel from the 5th Fighter Wing, to interfly training between the USAF F-16s and the PAF FA-50s in Basa Air Base, Philippines.

In addition to interfly training between the USAF F-16s and the PAF FA-50s, Airmen conducted subject matter expert exchanges on topics to include crash recovery, communications, flightline, and maintenance back-shop operations, concluding with a large force exercise on the last day.

“Having the F-16 fighter allowed us to interact with our PAF partners along with their FA-50s and in turn helped to strengthen our interoperability and training with a key partner.”

- Colonel Christopher Faurot USAF
BACE-P 13th Expeditionary Air Squadron commander

#Source: 113th Wing DC Air National Guard

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